As a researcher with experience in the field of quantum computing and blockchain technology, I believe that the emergence of quantum computing poses a significant threat to contemporary cryptography systems, including those used by cryptocurrencies. The active research and investment in quantum computing from both public and private sectors suggest that we could reach a critical point where quantum computers become powerful enough to break current security standards within the next few years.
Quantum computing may seem like science fiction, but it may come sooner than expected.
In their report published on January 11, 2024, the World Economic Forum highlighted artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum computing as potential risks that could significantly alter the current technological landscape.
Though there’s consensus among computer scientists and developers that quantum computing is not yet fully developed, ongoing research in this area is brimming with activity.
In the realm of quantum computing, every G7 nation is significantly engaged in this field within the public sector. On the other hand, among the leading ten tech firms in the private sector, seven of them are either fiercely competing for market supremacy or contributing in some manner, as reported by Quantum Resistant Ledger.
As a researcher studying the intersection of quantum computing and cryptography, I’m frequently asked about the timeline for quantum computers posing a significant threat to current encryption methods. While it’s essential to note that predictions are subject to change, some experts believe we might reach a worrying threshold within the next decade. Quantum algorithms like Shor’s and Grover’s could potentially crack RSA and elliptic curve cryptography, rendering today’s cryptocurrency protection schemes inadequate. However, it is crucial to remember that ongoing research in quantum-resistant cryptographic methods could significantly impact this timeline.
Based on a December 2023 report by Reuters, Tilo Kunz, the executive vice president of Quantum Defen5e (QD5), warned Defense Information Systems Agency officers that the quantum computing threshold, which marks the point where current security protocols can be breached, may occur as early as 2025.
Significant players in the financial sector have taken note. The Bank for International Settlements initiated “Project Leap” in June 2023, collaborating with the Banque de France and Deutsche Bundesbank, to create quantum-resistant payment systems.
With ominous weather reports and central banks taking action to secure financial transactions, how can the blockchain and cryptocurrency sector brace for “Q-day”? Is anybody adequately preparing?
Why is quantum computing dangerous for blockchains?
As a crypto investor, I’d put it this way: I had the opportunity to speak with the brilliant computer scientist and creator of the quantum-resistant blockchain XX Network, David Chaum. He enlightened me on CryptoMoon about how quantum computing could potentially “melt down” or “wipe out” a blockchain’s security.
The security of blockchain-based assets, such as cryptocurrencies, relies heavily on the SHA-256 algorithm for encryption. However, some experts raise concerns that quantum computing could potentially crack this algorithm, posing a significant threat to the security of these digital assets.
Afterward, quantum computers may potentially disrupt the blockchain’s agreement by generating false messages, interfering with the consensus protocol as proposed by Chaum.
“Quantum computing could kill existing blockchains by forging the signatures of the nodes. You could take them down.”
They could also effortlessly crack private keys, making funds vulnerable to theft.
Vitalik Buterin’s proposal to defend Ethereum
As a crypto investor, I’m always on the lookout for innovative solutions to potential challenges in the blockchain space. And one such challenge that has been looming large is the threat posed by quantum computing. Well, fear not, as Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum, has put forth a possible answer to this conundrum. He’s proposed an upgrade for Ethereum, known as “Serenity,” which incorporates a proof-of-stake consensus mechanism and includes a quantum-resistant cryptography algorithm called “Sapling.” This way, the network can continue to secure transactions even if quantum computers become more prevalent.
On March 9, 2024, Buterin put forth a proposal that included a hard fork to ready the blockchain for a potential quantum computing threat. This initiated a discussion regarding the best approach to take in this regard.
As a quantum computer analyst, I’d explain it this way: I, Buterin, pointed out that quantum computers have the potential to decipher Ethereum account private keys using only the corresponding public keys. This poses a significant security risk for Ethereum users.
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According to Buterin’s explanation, accounts on the Ethereum network that haven’t engaged in any transactions are the ones least vulnerable to quantum attacks since they haven’t yet disclosed their public keys.
Almost all cryptocurrency wallets could be at risk if this unconventional method were widely adopted by crypto holders.
As a researcher studying Ethereum’s security, I believe that the necessary technology to fortify Ethereum against quantum attacks could potentially be realized within the near future for Vitalik Buterin.
“We are already well-positioned to make a pretty simple recovery fork to deal with such a situation.”
Buterin’s proposed method relies on verifying ownership of cryptocurrencies or digital wallets through the use of a backup key for backup purposes.
In the 2021 paper titled “W-OTS(+) under the Radar: A Discreet Recovery Solution for Digital Wallets” penned by cryptography specialists Chaum, Mario Larangeira, Mario Yaksetig, and William Carter, they presented a novel method allowing users to create a backup key. This key is covertly incorporated within the secret key of a digital signature scheme, ensuring enhanced security for cryptocurrency wallets.
If a secret key is leaked, the backup key can be utilized to provide proof of ownership and regain access to the funds in an upgraded quantum-safe blockchain by means of a hard fork. Essentially, this involves making significant changes to the blockchain’s rules and history to reflect the new state of ownership.
If a quantum crisis arises, users will need to obtain a fresh wallet application and authenticate their ownership using the backup method. According to Buterin’s estimation, only a small number of users stand to lose their funds during this process.
In a hypothetical scenario, the Ethereum network would revert to an earlier point, specifically to the block where the major heist took place.
The quantum solution’s effect on ETH price
As a analyst, I’d put it this way: According to Chaum, Buterin’s proposed solution may not be foolproof and could potentially cause some disruption for Ethereum users.
According to Chaum’s explanation, if Ethereum fails to integrate a quantum resistance mechanism prior to a quantum assault, Buterin’s proposed emergency measure would necessitate restarting the Ethereum blockchain.
As a crypto investor, I’ve come to understand that the need for a quantum-resistant blockchain is becoming increasingly important. A new cryptographic chain with robust quantum resistance measures integrated at its very core must be developed first. Once this achievement is realized, it will then be possible for me to transfer my assets into a new wallet within this secure and advanced blockchain network.
In the course of transitioning to a quantum-resistant Ethereum blockchain, there is a necessity for halting its operations temporarily for an undetermined length of time. Quoted by Chaum, this undertaking may span several years.
The abrupt stopping of an actively used blockchain may have severe repercussions, which cannot be overlooked; this interruption could lead to disastrous outcomes.
“There would be a big time gap. I’m not sure that the price of Ether would survive that gap.”
John Woods, the CTO at Algorand Foundation, spoke with CryptoMoon and expressed his belief in Vitalik Buterin’s competence. However, he suggested that Ethereum could advance more: “This post seems like a crisis response rather than a graceful progression into the quantum cryptography age for Ethereum.”
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Algorand employs the “Falcon” signature scheme as part of its post-quantum security measures. This is one of the three signing methods chosen by the National Institute of Standards and Technology for standardization.
As an Ethereum investor, I would suggest encouraging the Ethereum team to consider adopting Falcon to enhance interoperability. The implementation of Falcon isn’t exclusive to Algorand; instead, it holds promise for integration by multiple distributed ledger technologies, blockchains, and related systems.
It appears that Ethereum has developed a contingency plan to continue operating effectively if a quantum computing threat is identified.
Yet, it’s important to note that the emergency response comes with significant drawbacks. These concerns underscore the importance of the Ethereum development community dedicating their efforts towards creating quantum-safe solutions prior to the arrival of Quantum Day.
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2024-04-26 16:55