- Harris now leading Polymarket odds at 50%, with Trump closely trailing at 49%.
- Trump’s WLF project is facing criticism, adding uncertainty to his presidential odds.
As a seasoned crypto investor who has witnessed the rise and fall of many digital assets, I find myself intrigued by the current state of the U.S presidential race. The narrow lead Kamala Harris holds over Donald Trump in Polymarket odds is a critical one, considering her previous trailing position on the platform.
As we approach the final two months before the upcoming U.S. Presidential elections, I find myself in an interesting position as an analyst, with the latest Polymarket data suggesting a slight advantage for Vice President Kamala Harris. The numbers indicate that she has approximately a 50% chance of securing victory over her opponent, former President Donald Trump, who currently stands at around 49%. This close race is shaping up to be an exciting finish!
Although the gap isn’t large in terms of numbers, it remains crucial. This is particularly important given that Vice President Harris has been consistently behind the Former President in predictions on Polymarket for quite some time.
Presidential debate and its impact
For several days prior, Trump was the front-runner in Polymarket’s predictions. But on September 10th, an unexpected shift occurred as Trump and Harris squared off for their initial presidential debate.
The debate covered various topics, from the economy to immigration. However, notably, cryptocurrencies were largely absent from any discussion. Despite much anticipation, neither candidate delved into the subject, leaving many in the crypto community waiting for clarity on their positions.
Beyond this point, it seemed clear that many people believed Donald Trump’s debate skills didn’t meet expectations. Intriguingly, statistics from a blockchain-powered betting platform, Polymarket, showed that an overwhelming 99% of voters thought Kamala Harris won the debate instead.
Before the discussion, it’s worth noting that Trump was ahead with about 53% of the predicted votes, whereas Harris was slightly behind with approximately 45%.
Right after the debate, the competition between the two candidates became incredibly close, as they found themselves tied at 49% apiece.
Trump’s push to top the prediction polls
Given the decrease in his chances of being president, Trump decided to use X (formerly Twitter) on September 12th to share that he would be live on the platform on September 16th. In this broadcast, he disclosed plans for World Liberty Financial (WLF), a project overseen by his sons, Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump.
He said,
“We’re embracing the future with crypto and leaving the slow and outdated big banks behind.”
It seems that the reaction to this plan didn’t receive as much positive feedback as initially anticipated. In reality, even within the cryptocurrency community, responses have been rather lukewarm.
For example – Colin Talks Crypto took to X and suggested,
Trump’s crypto engagement so far
Although specifics are still unclear, Trump has suggested earlier that World Liberty Financial could function as a peer-to-peer lending and borrowing system within the realm of decentralized finance (DeFi).
This move represents another milestone in his shift towards cryptocurrencies over the past year and a half. His involvement with the crypto community has been significant, marked by attending Bitcoin conferences, accepting crypto donations, organizing NFT-themed dinners, and marketing Bitcoin products.
These actions have kept many in the cryptocurrency community supporting him as a potential U.S President, despite his lackluster performance in debates.
What lies ahead?
It’s quite likely that Trump might regain the number one position on the Polymarket rankings when WLF (Whatever Legal Fund) becomes operational.
Nevertheless, although Trump has shown significant interest in cryptocurrency, the latest criticism towards the WLF project has sparked worries. Particularly, there are doubts about possible conflicts of interest if he is re-elected, given his past involvement.
Interestingly enough, even Nic Carter – a partner at Castle Island Ventures and a supporter of Donald Trump – has referred to this project as a “major blunder.
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2024-09-13 14:16