What you need to know
- Compiling data en masse, Destiny 2 players may have discovered a significant bug that’s potentially been influencing perk rolls on weapons for years.
- Using data collected from the API of Bungie’s looter shooter, players have put forth the “perk proximity theory” that suggests perks closer together in each weapon’s API listing have a higher chance of rolling together in a combo, while perks that are far away from one another are less likely to drop together.
- The catalyst for this potential discovery was a new heavy grenade launcher called VS Chill Inhibitor, with players having an exceptionally difficult time getting the desired meta combo of Envious Arsenal and Bait and Switch. Those two perks are three spaces away from one another in the weapon’s API listing, while much more common combos like Envious Arsenal and Explosive Light have perks that are right next to each other.
- Bungie has announced that it’s been made aware of the issue, and is using player data as well as internal investigations to try and find “a potential issue within our code for how RNG perks are generated.”
As a seasoned Destiny 2 player with countless hours spent grinding for that elusive god-roll weapon, I can’t help but feel both intrigued and frustrated by this recent revelation. The idea that a bug might have been influencing perk rolls for years is mind-boggling, and it’s something that, as someone who has experienced the heartache of countless ‘near misses’ while chasing the perfect combo, I find both fascinating and infuriating in equal measure.
The core debate in Bungie’s space-themed loot shooter Destiny 2, Destiny 2, revolves around randomized weapon traits known as perks. These perks determine how weapons function and what they can achieve. Some players suspect that less favorable perks are deliberately more common to drop, a notion Bungie has consistently refuted. However, it seems fans might have found a glitch affecting the drop rate of perks, a bug that could have slipped past Bungie’s notice for quite some time.
The driving factor behind the possible discovery was the VS Chill Inhibitor, a powerful heavy grenade launcher introduced in the Vesper’s Host dungeon with the Revenant update. This weapon can be equipped with the impressive perk combination of Envious Arsenal and Bait and Switch. The former allows it to fully reload its magazine, while the latter grants it a significant 35% damage boost whenever you inflict damage with your other two weapons first. As anticipated, this specific configuration quickly became the top choice for boss damage, but it’s been found to be extremely scarce, sparking investigations among Destiny community statisticians.
Initially proposed on social media by streamer T1Vendetta as the term “copium,” Destiny experts such as Newo and MossyMax have amassed significant data that hints at a theory called the “perk proximity hypothesis” potentially influencing drop rates. I won’t delve into the specific numerical aspects of the drop rates in this discussion – for more details, you can read Newo’s comprehensive 10-page analysis paper if interested. In essence, the idea is that perks have a lower probability of appearing together when they are positioned far apart within Destiny 2’s programming interface (API). The following image from MossyMax demonstrates this concept:
In the provided example, perks situated right next to each other (indicated by the yellow line) seem to have decreased together significantly, followed by those that are one space apart (green line), two spaces apart (blue line), and three spaces apart (purple line). Normally, you should have a 1/36 chance of obtaining any combination of perks on a weapon with six traits in each column. However, if this bug is indeed real, it appears to be influencing the drop rates such that perks positioned close to each other have a higher chance of about 1/24 to appear together, whereas those that are farther apart from one another have significantly lower odds of approximately 1/454.
Initially, I struggled to accept this theory as it seemed implausible. However, upon observing a clear pattern across the data, it’s become apparent that there is indeed something unusual happening – and this anomaly seems to be the reason behind the difficulty many players are experiencing in obtaining their preferred god roll for Vestian Dynasty (Chill Inhibitor). Interestingly, Envious Arsenal and Bait and Switch, which are three spots apart in the weapon’s API listing (as shown on Light.gg), have proven to be extremely elusive, while Envious Arsenal and Explosive Light (the “runner-up” combo) appear to drop together quite frequently.
It’s astonishingly revealing to cross-check data from Light.gg’s dataset on weapon perk combinations since 2018’s Forsaken expansion with the individual weapon pages on their site. This comparison suggests that this issue could have been impacting Destiny 2 for quite some time, potentially making undesirable rolls more frequent, and making desirable rolls less common than expected, and vice versa. However, there’s a silver lining: Bungie has become aware of the problem due to player reports, and they are currently looking into it.
The developer’s post stated that although they assure no deliberate bias in weapon perk weighting within their game setup for Destiny 2, they are now examining a possible coding issue concerning the random generation of perks (RNG). They expressed gratitude to all players who have been collaborating by sharing data across the community. This collective input has significantly aided their investigation, and currently, they’re running internal tests to verify the findings. As soon as more details become available, they will share them with us.
Earlier, Bungie addressed player worries stating there’s no system favoring certain perks in the game. However, I believe they may have overlooked the “proximity of perks” issue. Instead of focusing on individual perks appearing more frequently than others, they should have been aware of unusual combinations or scarcities of specific perk combinations. With player-collected data providing a clearer picture, the developer should now be able to identify the root cause and rectify it.
In summary, this incident appears to be turning into one of the most extraordinary scandals ever witnessed within the Destiny community, but I firmly believe that Bungie didn’t intend for any of it to happen. With weapon crafting, a feature that lets players customize their weapons with desired perk combinations after obtaining enough “red border” versions, losing some prominence and traditional loot gathering becoming more popular following The Final Shape update, I’m relieved that this issue came to light when it did.
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2024-10-25 05:39