- BTC topped $107K amid increased optimism of a likely US national reserve.
- Kraken whales placed sell orders at $150K-$160K price targets.
As a seasoned cryptocurrency researcher with a decade of experience under my belt, I’ve seen many market fluctuations and trends come and go. The recent surge of Bitcoin topping $107K amid growing optimism about a potential US national reserve is indeed an exciting development. However, as we’ve learned time and again in this wild world of crypto, nothing moves in a straight line.
16th December saw Bitcoin reaching an all-time high of $107K, fueled by increasing anticipation that the U.S might establish a countrywide Bitcoin reserve.
Reaching the next goal of $110,000 seems achievable with the current level of excitement, however, some large investors (whales) are looking at potential price ranges between $150,000 and $160,000.
As per the analysis by Bitcoindata21, an on-chain analyst for BTC, the large sell orders placed by Kraken whales at prices above $150,000 seem to echo the market trend predicted for early 2024. This pattern has had a dampening effect on Bitcoin’s price momentum, keeping it below the $80,000 mark, as suggested by his statement.
It appears that Kraken whales are hinting at upcoming slowdowns in Bitcoin’s price over the next few months by placing large sell orders. These actions resemble previous instances where such sell orders halted Bitcoin’s growth rate earlier in the year.
BTC’s growing demand
BTC’s recent all-time high (ATH) above $107K was boosted by strong spot market demand.
As reported by Julio Moreno, the lead researcher at CryptoQuant, there’s been a decrease in selling pressure from major players, coinciding with an uptick in overall demand, according to his statement.
As an analyst, I’ve noticed a significant decrease in holdings on Bitcoin Over-The-Counter (OTC) desks this month, with a decline of approximately 25,000 Bitcoins. Despite the ongoing growth in demand, these desks have seen their balances shrink substantially, having lost around 40,000 Bitcoins since November last year.
In simpler terms, when the balance on the Over-the-Counter (OTC) trading desk decreases, it indicates reduced selling pressure from significant traders who typically don’t trade through centralized exchanges. This decrease is generally seen as a favorable indication for Bitcoin’s potential price increase.
With growing interest from investors, Bitcoin could potentially climb even higher, possibly reaching the predicted price range of $120,000 – $150,000.
It’s worth noting that the recent price fluctuations in Bitcoin appear to align quite closely with the odds predicted by Polymarket regarding the possibility of the US establishing a Bitcoin reserve.
On Monday, the probability significantly increased from 25% to as much as 40%, mirroring Bitcoin’s rise from approximately $94,000 to $107,000 during the same timeframe.
Currently, the chances have become slightly more favorable at approximately 38%, as Bitcoin (BTC) dipped to around $106,500. This implies that the United States BTC reserve might be the next significant factor influencing the potential price range of $120,000-$150,000 or even higher.
Now, does that mean the widely anticipated pullback was not a concern?
In simpler terms, even though the potential for a price drop (pullback risk) was still present due to increased profitability shown by the SOPR metric, Bitcoin historically reached a peak in its local market when this profitable holder indicator touched either the first or second level, suggesting they might be cashing out.
Currently, the metric is nearly reaching its initial threshold, implying there’s still a possibility of a decrease in value.
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2024-12-17 19:03