Qualcomm scores BIG win against Arm, can continue to sell Snapdragon X chips for PCs

As a tech enthusiast with over two decades of experience in the industry, I can confidently say that this latest development between Qualcomm and Arm is a significant turning point for the future of computing. The fact that Qualcomm has been found innocent in this case means they can continue to innovate and push the boundaries of what’s possible with their Snapdragon X processors, which is fantastic news for consumers.

Tonight, there was some positive development for Qualcomm’s upcoming Snapdragon X processors, as a jury decided that the company had correctly licensed its chips from Arm Holdings, according to Reuters. However, despite the mistrial in the actual court case, it seems that the legal battle between Arm and Qualcomm may continue.

Try mediation instead. This recommendation stems from Judge Noreika’s conviction that if the case proceeded to a second trial, neither party would secure a definitive win.

From Reuters reporting on the verdict:

Following over 9 hours of discussions spread across two days, the jury in a U.S. federal court was unable to reach a consensus on whether Nuvia, a company acquired by Qualcomm for $1.4 billion in 2021, violated the terms of its license with Arm. However, they did determine that Qualcomm did not breach Nuvia’s agreement with Arm.

Earlier today, I shared that Qualcomm projected potential savings of up to $1.4 billion by decreasing its dependency on Arm. However, those figures have recently been called into question. Yet, today’s decision seems to vindicate Qualcomm CEO Christiano Amon’s gamble when he acquired Nuvia in 2021.

Initially, Nuvia was launched by former employees from Apple and Arm, intending to create entirely new chips based on the Arm architecture for servers. But then, Qualcomm unexpectedly offered them a $1.4 billion investment, causing them to alter their course. Now, they focus on developing advanced processors for Windows PCs, aiming to challenge Apple’s market dominance in this sector.

In the court proceedings, Qualcomm asserted that no more than 1% of their Oryon CPU core designs are influenced by Armv8 architecture.

In Q3 2024, it was reported that only about 720,000 computers equipped with Qualcomm chips were sold, which seemed like entirely unfavorable news to me as a fan. Yet, Qualcomm has set an ambitious goal to control half of the market within five years. However, with just a 0.8% share in Q3 2024 sales, it’s clear that they have a long way to go, starting off on a relatively weak footing. Apparently, Qualcomm chips are powering only around 1.5% of all Windows PCs at present.

After the court decision, Arm Holdings has dropped by 1.75%, while Qualcomm has risen by 2% and continues to increase during post-market trading.

The fate of Snapdragon X (Nuvia cores) was on the table

If Qualcomm had been deemed responsible for not appropriately licensing technology from Arm, it might have been compelled to stop selling its Snapdragon X processors. Consequently, companies such as ASUS, Acer, Microsoft, Dell, HP, and Lenovo could have removed their products from store shelves. Furthermore, it wouldn’t have been able to launch new versions of the chip, whether larger or smaller, for future devices.

With Qualcomm being declared innocent by the jury, Arm significantly weakens its negotiation leverage when aiming for a substantial compensation from Qualcomm.

Instead, it’s possible that Arm could request a fresh trial, delaying the entire situation until 2025. However, it appears more plausible that the parties will reach a negotiated settlement where Arm receives additional funds, while Qualcomm receives an assurance of no further legal disputes.

It’s worth noting that Qualcomm might launch the second generation of its Snapdragon X processors around mid-2025. Remarkably, this upcoming chip is projected to diverge even more from ARM’s design architecture, potentially strengthening doubts about ARM’s approach.

In May 2024, I pointed out that the introduction of Snapdragon X Elite and Snapdragon X Plus processors marked a significant shift in the Windows PC industry, spearheaded by ARM64 and AI technologies – a transformation unparalleled over the past three decades. Moving into 2025, I anticipate further disruptions from leading Windows Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs).

It appears that Windows laptop manufacturers aren’t showing much interest in the ongoing competition between Arm and Qualcomm. In fact, last year alone, over 20 laptops were launched with Qualcomm’s latest processors, and it is anticipated that we will hear about even more Qualcomm-based PCs at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2025 in early January in Las Vegas.

2024-12-21 02:39

The fate of Snapdragon X (Nuvia cores) was on the table

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