Sam Altman predicts superintelligence will trigger a 10x surge in AI breakthroughs — each year as revolutionary as a decade

As a seasoned researcher with decades of experience in the field, I find myself constantly amazed at the pace of technological advancement, particularly in AI. The recent developments from top labs like OpenAI and Google have been nothing short of astounding. However, the speculation surrounding AGI and superintelligence has me both excited and slightly apprehensive.

As the year 2024 draws to a close, leading AI research facilities such as OpenAI (in association with Microsoft), Google, Anthropic, and others have been consistently pushing boundaries in the competitive AI arena. For example, OpenAI recently wrapped up its “12 days of shipmas,” showcasing an array of innovations and offerings. Among these developments are the introduction of a successor to OpenAI 01 boasting enhanced reasoning abilities, a new subscription plan priced at $200 for its advanced AI model known as ChatGPT Pro, and additional features.

From my vantage point, the scarcity of recent announcements is overshadowed by the intriguing speculation surrounding the arrival of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) earlier than expected. Over the last few months, a flurry of reports have hinted at AI potentially marking the end of our species. Notably, a renowned AI safety researcher has foretold an astoundingly high 99.9% likelihood that AI’s advancement could inexorably lead to catastrophe, unless its development trajectory is abruptly halted.

In a recent interview on The Free Press YouTube Channel, as reported by tsarnick on X, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman provided some intriguing perspectives about Artificial General Intelligence.

Imagine if the pace of global scientific advancement doubled or even increased tenfold. This means discoveries that once took a decade could be made in a year, and technological progress at the same rate. If this acceleration continued annually and compounded upon itself, it would feel as though we had achieved superintelligence.

AGI and superintelligence won’t change what we fundamentally care about

Superintelligence and AGI are not the same thing. The former supersedes AGI’s capabilities as it constitutes a powerful AI system, outperforming humans with unlimited memory, advanced reasoning capabilities, speed, and more. A technical employee at OpenAI indicated that the AI firm’s OpenAI o1 release to general availability constitutes AGI.

It’s worth noting that Sam Altman had suggested earlier on that the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) might arrive more suddenly than expected, with relatively minimal initial impact on society. He further mentioned that the safety concerns often raised about the fast pace of AI advancement may not materialize during the AGI stage itself. Instead, he emphasized that it would take a considerable time to progress from AGI to superintelligence.

Sam Altman admits superintelligence will revolutionize how society and the economy work. However, he claims it won’t change the deep fundamental human drives, including what we tend to care about and what drives us, “but the world in which we exist will change a lot.”

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2024-12-24 17:08