How Q1 could shape Bitcoin’s future – Markus Thielen explains…

Bitcoin’s January rally to face a potential pullback due to the Fed’s upcoming move.
Institutional interest and stablecoin activity continue to support BTC’s bullish outlook despite short-term volatility.

With all the buzz about Donald Trump’s second term as the 47th U.S. President, there was a significant rise in the cryptocurrency market.

Or:

During the hype over Donald Trump becoming the 47th U.S. President again, the crypto market witnessed an impressive increase.

Still, worries persist because forecasts indicate a possible reversal might occur when the Federal Reserve unveils its initial interest rate adjustment for the year.

What to expect in Q1?

As suggested by Markus Thielen, the founder of 10x Research, an optimistic beginning in early January might be preceded by a minor dip before crucial economic data is released, and then another surge could occur as we approach Donald Trump’s inauguration on the 20th of January.

In the upcoming weeks, this situation offers a captivating backdrop for Bitcoin [BTC] and the entire cryptocurrency industry as a whole.

Remarking on the same, Thielen highlighted a potentially positive CPI resultant and said,

If inflation data shows improvement, it could rekindle optimism, potentially sparking a market surge leading up to President Trump’s inauguration.

He added,

Nevertheless, this current trend might slow down, as it seems that the market could experience a slight pullback before the FOMC meeting scheduled for January 29.

In simpler terms, it’s almost certain (88.8%) that after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on January 29th, the US federal target rate will stay within a range of approximately 4.25% to 4.50%. If this prediction holds true, it means interest rates will remain high for the time being.

What’s Bitcoin price status?

After Bitcoin’s decline of almost 15%, reaching around $92,800, which occurred in the wake of the FOMC meeting on the 18th of December, the Federal Reserve modified its prediction for interest rate cuts in 2025 from five to two.

As per Thielen’s analysis, the forthcoming statements from the Federal Reserve could potentially dampen any Bitcoin rallies anticipated in 2025, introducing an element of doubt into the optimistic market forecasts.

This year, we expect a decrease in inflation rates, but it might be a while before the Federal Reserve acknowledges and reacts to this change officially.

Regardless of temporary price fluctuations, the long-term perspective on Bitcoin looks promising due to increased institutional involvement in the creation of stablecoins and investments in Bitcoin Spot ETFs.

Even though Bitcoin’s short-term prices might go up or down, experts are optimistic about its future because more institutions are interested in creating a type of digital currency called stablecoins, and they’re also investing in special funds called Bitcoin Spot ETFs.

Thielen predicts Bitcoin could reach the $97,000 to $98,000 range by the end of January.

According to John Glover, the Chief Investment Officer at Ledn, there’s a possible surge for Bitcoin prices reaching around $125,000 by the close of Q1 (Quarter 1). Furthermore, he proposes that the price could potentially climb up to $160,000 somewhere in late 2025 or early 2026.

Here’s what the indicators are saying

It’s worth noting that the Crypto Fear and Greed Index for King Coin has spiked, indicating a high level of optimism or “Extreme Greed” among investors. This suggests they are confident about Bitcoin’s future prospects, even though there might be temporary ups and downs in the market.

Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) standing at 57 as we speak, adds credence to Bitcoin’s extended bullish trend in the long run.

In other words, although Bitcoin’s surge in January seems hopeful, the Fed’s monetary decisions and overall economic trends play crucial roles in determining its potential future course.

2025-01-06 22:16

What to expect in Q1?

What’s Bitcoin price status?

Here’s what the indicators are saying

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