Mapping Dogecoin’s price targets after memecoin market cap falls below $100B

Heightened Dogecoin circulation and lowered volatility highlighted HODL behavior
Price action chart outlined $0.316 as a vital short-term support

Currently, as I’m typing, Dogecoin (DOGE) is having difficulty climbing up its price graph. The optimistic excitement surrounding DOGE and other meme coins that was prevalent about two months back seems to have faded away.

Over the past six weeks, Bitcoin [BTC] has found it challenging to maintain the $100k level as a strong support point.

At the current moment, information from CoinMarketCap shows that the total value of meme coins is approximately $96.5 billion. In contrast, this figure was around $137 billion on December 09. This decrease suggests a pessimistic outlook for Dogecoin and similar memes.

Can the sector’s leader recover in the coming weeks?

Daily active addresses fell off a cliff, have not recovered yet

During the height of the meme coin craze in November, the number of daily active Dogecoin addresses dramatically increased. It reached a high point of approximately 1.68 million active addresses on November 22nd, but then promptly decreased afterwards. Additionally, the transaction count declined significantly, particularly after mid-December.

Over the past two months, I’ve observed relatively consistent low levels of active addresses, typically hovering around 70,000. While this figure is commendable on its own, it’s quite a distance from the recent high points we’ve seen.

Over the last 90 days, we’ve seen a significant number of unique Dogecoin (DOGE) tokens being traded. This figure, known as circulation, has consistently risen over the past two months, indicating a growing interest in DOGE. On the other hand, the average speed at which these tokens are being exchanged, measured by the 7-day moving average of token velocity, has been on a downward trend recently.

The frequency of Doge token transactions has been decreasing on average, indicating less trading activity and more holding. This could suggest an increase in on-chain accumulation.

Chances of a short-term Dogecoin recovery

On the four-hour chart, the market exhibited a bearish trend. However, a rebound occurred at the halfway point of the previous decline, reaching a price of $0.341 which served as a lower high. If the market closes above this level during a four-hour trading session, it would indicate a break in the bearish structure, suggesting a potential bullish trend shift.

Over the past seven days, while prices were on a rollercoaster ride, I’ve noticed that the trading volume has been steadily decreasing. Furthermore, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) has shown little excitement lately, with a clear downward trend observed during the same period.

The underlined volume suggests a pessimistic outlook, however, the trend is starting to lean towards optimism. The Awesome Oscillator has crossed above neutral zero as well. It’s possible that the price might return to the $0.336-$0.34 range again.

Over the past month, the liquidation heatmap has pinpointed two significant zones for Dogecoin. One of these zones, located around $0.3 – $0.306, exhibits a powerful magnetic pull and may trigger a bullish turnaround when it’s breached.

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To the north, there was a significant grouping of potential sell-off points around the $0.36 mark. Given the current volume trends, a drop to approximately $0.3 seems plausible within the upcoming week or so.

2025-01-13 12:07

Daily active addresses fell off a cliff, have not recovered yet

Chances of a short-term Dogecoin recovery

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