On March 6, 2025, former President Donald Trump, not one to shy away from big ideas, took a bold step forward in the world of digital assets. He 
signed an Executive Order that, wait for it… created a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and a U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile. Yes, you read that correctly. The man who once promised to build a wall now promises to build a digital fortress of Bitcoin.
Now, don’t get too excited—this reserve isn’t quite the sprawling Bitcoin empire some might dream of. No, it currently only holds Bitcoin seized through criminal and civil forfeitures, because who doesn’t love a good confiscation story? But here’s where the plot thickens: rumors are swirling that Trump might just create a broader Trump Bitcoin Reserve, a plan that could make the Strategic Petroleum Reserve look like a kiddie pool by comparison.
Kalshi Predicts a 50% Chance of a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2025
According to the wise soothsayers at Kalshi, there’s a solid 50% chance that Trump will pull the trigger and create a National Bitcoin Reserve this year. This wouldn’t just be a shiny announcement. No, the reserve would actually hold Bitcoin not snatched from the hands of criminals. It could even include other cryptocurrencies—because why stop at just Bitcoin? Of course, Kalshi insists that the reserve has to be fully functional, not just something someone scribbles on a napkin after a long day at the golf course.
Kalshi’s sentiment data paints a rather dramatic picture:
- 57.2% probability at the start of 2025
- 41.2% dip on January 9, probably due to the post-holiday blues
- 70.6% peak on March 6, right after Trump’s executive order, because who doesn’t love a little bit of official government action?
Timeline: Trump’s Bitcoin and Crypto Policy Moves
- July 2024 – Trump announces a plan for a Bitcoin Reserve during campaign speeches. Because why not?
- Nov 2024 – Trump wins the U.S. Presidential election; promises cabinet members who actually know what crypto is (probably).
- Dec 2024 – Plans to nominate Paul S. Atkins as SEC chair. Because regulations are fun.
- Jan 2025 – Forms a crypto regulation task force, likely consisting of people who understand blockchain, unlike the rest of us.
- Mar 2025 – Signs the Executive Order to create the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve. Hopefully, he remembers to tell everyone about it at the next rally.
What Could a National Bitcoin Reserve Mean?
If Trump decides to go all-in and make the National Bitcoin Reserve a reality, we could be witnessing a seismic shift in financial policy. The potential impact might include:
- Boosting investor confidence in U.S. crypto policies—because who doesn’t trust the guy who made “Fake News” a household term?
- Accelerating regulatory clarity and institutional adoption. That’s a fancy way of saying, “People might actually start taking crypto seriously.”
- Proclaiming America as the undisputed leader in global digital finance. Sorry, Switzerland, looks like you’re no longer the go-to for secrecy.
But, of course, there are a few little obstacles: execution, political alignment, and the potential for international eyebrow-raising. No big deal, right?
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2025-04-22 14:51