How Many Units Could the Nintendo Switch 2 Sell?

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The long-awaited Nintendo Switch 2 has finally been officially unveiled, with its launch only about two months away. While it might seem that this console reveal process has been chaotic, as is often the case with new gaming machines, let’s face it – turbulence, inaccurate information, and poor communication are almost inevitable leading up to a device’s release. The hype can easily drown out the truth and create confusion. To make things even more complex, real-world uncertainties add an additional layer of difficulty.

Indeed, it can be said that the unveiling of the Switch 2 was quite tumultuous, much like the PS5 and the original Switch reveals. These events were marred by controversies that, with time, have become largely forgettable, as both systems turned out to be popular products following their launch. The concern now is whether the same fate awaits the Switch 2 – while it’s true that consoles like the Wii, Switch, and PS5 also had turbulent pre-launch phases but thrived despite this, it’s also worth noting that systems such as the Xbox One and PS3 also experienced turbulence before launch. Although they achieved some level of success, they ultimately underperformed compared to their potential, especially considering the strong foundations left by their predecessors.

In essence, the question is about predicting the potential success of the Switch 2. It’s a challenging task given its predecessor’s position as likely the best-selling game system ever, but Nintendo has a track record of follow-ups that don’t meet expectations. Moreover, Nintendo’s hardware market performance can be unpredictable, ranging from all-time greats like the Switch and DS (which sold over 150 million units each) to less successful systems such as the Game Boy, Wii, 3DS, and GBA (ranging from 120 to 85 million units). The Game Cube and Wii U are examples of even lower-performing systems with sales under 22 and 14 million units respectively.

To clarify from the beginning, it’s highly unlikely that the Switch 2 will struggle to the extent that the Wii U and GameCube did in terms of underperformance. While these consoles are often cited as examples of Nintendo systems that failed, it’s crucial to consider the entire picture. The full context is significant because it provides a more accurate understanding.

To put it another way, although the Wii U and GameCube were undeniably disappointing for Nintendo and the console market in general, they were still part of a larger narrative. For instance, the Game Boy Advance (GBA), which sold 82 million units, was launched concurrently with the GameCube, and the Nintendo 3DS, which sold 75 million units, was released alongside the Wii U. This implies that even in their less successful years, Nintendo continued to introduce platforms that were commercially viable.

These handheld devices have gained significant attention as they served as the primary method for many, if not most, to experience Nintendo games. Essentially, handhelds represent the core of Nintendo’s hardware business over consoles. Notably, Nintendo has held an unparalleled dominance in portable gaming for more than 40 years, dating back from Game and Watch, through Game Boy, DS, and now Switch. The majority of Nintendo fans can be found within this segment. It’s common for individuals to own a Nintendo handheld device alongside their home console, and these devices offer a cost-effective and well-supported way to enjoy games thanks to the abundance of high-quality third-party titles. In fact, one major factor contributing to the Switch’s success was its focus on expanding the portable aspect of the Nintendo hardware business rather than the home console side.

In console generations with underperforming systems like the Wii U and GameCube, Nintendo has consistently managed an audience of 75-80 million people who have purchased Nintendo hardware for playing Nintendo games. This is the minimum base audience that Nintendo can rely on. Previously, when Nintendo’s consoles struggled, this audience might have shifted to or been absorbed by Nintendo’s portable devices. However, at present, there are no more portable Nintendo devices available, which means that if you want to play popular franchises like Mario, Zelda, Mario Kart, Pokemon, or Kirby, your only option is the Switch 2. This built-in audience guarantees a minimum level of success for the system.

Absolutely, there are significant issues that need to be addressed, and they revolve around the exorbitant costs associated with the system’s games and upgrades, as well as the high price tag of the Switch 2 hardware itself. Although it is considered fair, it’s clear that this price point exceeds what families and younger audiences – two groups critical to Nintendo’s triumph – are willing or able to pay. Consequently, even if the pricing is deemed fair, it doesn’t benefit Nintendo if it’s beyond the financial reach of their primary market segments.

Frankly speaking, the steep prices for the Switch 2 wouldn’t typically cause much concern. However, given the unusual economic climate we’re in now, high costs are something to give serious thought to. It’s possible that many potential buyers might struggle financially and be unable to afford a Switch 2 (or any gaming system), even if they had bought a Switch or a PS4 before. In simpler terms, due to the current economic situation, it’s more important than ever to consider cost when planning for the launch of the Switch 2.

Predicting the exact outcome is challenging due to numerous factors. Most importantly, the situation can change dramatically on a daily basis, making it difficult to make any definitive assumptions. Historically, video games have shown an unexpected resistance to economic downturns. For instance, during the 2008 recession, while most other industries struggled, video games reached new heights, with the success of the Wii, Xbox 360, and PS3 leading the way. In 2020, with the global economy plummeting due to COVID-19, spending on almost everything else decreased – the movie and streaming industries are still grappling with the effects of COVID as an example. However, boosted by the release of the PS5 and Nintendo Switch, video game sales and revenues hit record highs.

Indeed, simply because things were a certain way in the past doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be the same this time around, especially if we’re dealing with what could potentially be the most severe economic crisis in over a century. However, it does imply that it’s challenging to foresee exactly how much the flexibility of demand will be affected by game prices.

It’s clear that one thing we can confidently assert is that if pricing becomes a challenge, it can be swiftly addressed. Nintendo demonstrated great foresight and execution in this regard, considering their history of problematic console launches. There are numerous factors that could go awry, most of which cannot be rectified over the long term. For instance, you could botch the branding of your system so severely that people either don’t recognize its existence or are puzzled about what it is if they do know about it – this was the fate of the Wii U and PS Vita. This kind of mistake is hard to rectify – if you damage the branding, it will take a significant amount of effort and resources to repair the harm. Nintendo managed to dodge this issue with the Switch 2, which boasts straightforward branding for a successor system.

Instead of creating hardware that appeals to consumers, you could design it in a way that makes it unattractive by incorporating features or novelties that interfere with the primary experience. This strategy is often unsuccessful, as it’s usually disliked by the majority of the market. The Wii U, Xbox One, and Nintendo 3DS are instances of this approach. Addressing such issues can take a considerable amount of time, as seen in the Xbox One’s removal of Kinect after nearly a year, or the 3DS’s introduction of the 2DS, which eliminated the 3D gimmick entirely after more than two years. However, Nintendo managed to avoid this pitfall with the Switch 2 by focusing mainly on improving and enhancing what users already appreciate about the original version, rather than adding unnecessary or disruptive features.

A significant mistake a new system may commit is disrupting the release schedule of its games, which can lead to its downfall. If a system fails to provide a substantial number of appealing games at launch or afterwards, it risks losing traction as usage, engagement, sales, and word-of-mouth decrease. Examples of this issue include Nintendo with the Wii U and 3DS, Microsoft with the Xbox One and Xbox Series, and Sony with the PlayStation 3. This problem is particularly detrimental, especially given the lengthy development cycles of modern games, which can span years. If your release pipeline isn’t well-organized, it may take that long to put out system-selling games, and by then, it could be too late – as seen with the Wii U or even the Xbox Series. However, the Switch 2 seems to have addressed this issue effectively. It is launching with a successor to one of the best-selling and most beloved games in a decade, followed by a new AAA 3D Donkey Kong platformer just a month later, and more titles like Kirby, Pokemon, Hyrule Warriors, Metroid Prime 4 Beyond over the remainder of the year. Assuming Nintendo maintains this pace for game releases next year – which they have done consistently over the past eight years – the Switch 2 has managed to avoid this problem too. Additionally, we should consider the impressive lineup of third-party games that the Switch 2 is also set to receive this year and into the following one.

Speaking of the major challenges a new system might encounter, an exorbitant cost is one of them. This can certainly be a drawback, potentially hindering initial success, but fortunately, it’s also the most manageable issue. Although factors such as global marketing strategies, profit margins, projected revenue, and supply chain constraints, along with other logistical aspects, must all be carefully considered, the price of the system is the most flexible when it comes to market response. If, hypothetically, the Switch 2 underperforms in sales due to its cost, Nintendo can simply lower the price and rectify the situation, as there are no other significant problems with the system at present.

As an ardent enthusiast, here’s my take on your statement:

From what I’ve observed, it seems reasonable to anticipate that the Switch 2 might experience a slight dip in sales compared to the original Switch – yet not as drastic as some of Nintendo’s generational transitions have been historically. To draw a parallel, consider Sony’s transition from PS4 to PS5. Despite the PS5 starting off behind the PS4, it has continued to sell exceptionally well, albeit not quite reaching the heights of its predecessor. Similarly, I envision the Switch 2 following suit, initially lagging behind the Switch 1 but maintaining robust sales.

In the grand scheme of things, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Switch 2 concludes its lifecycle with sales between 100-120 million units. However, even a conservative estimate would suggest that we can expect sales in the 70-80 million unit range, based on the track record of Nintendo’s portable devices.

Regardless of the circumstances, there’s absolutely no risk of it being a flop. In fact, no historical system that included a primary Pokemon game has ever seen underperformance.

Note: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of, and should not be attributed to, GamingBolt as an organization.

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2025-05-19 12:14