A leaked document suggests OpenAI will hit AGI when it builds an AI system that can generate up to $100 billion in profit — but the ChatGPT maker could endure a massive $44 billion loss before seeing profit in 2029 partly due to Microsoft tie-up

As an experienced tech observer with over two decades of following the evolution of AI, I find myself intrigued by the current state of affairs at OpenAI and its partnership with Microsoft. Having witnessed the rise and fall of numerous tech giants and startups alike, I can’t help but feel a sense of deja vu as I read about OpenAI’s financial struggles and ambitious revenue targets.

It seems that the race to achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI) has become more of a high-stakes game of monopoly for these tech titans. The leaked document suggesting that OpenAI will only hit the AGI benchmark when it generates $100 billion in profits is, in my humble opinion, an audacious move. Given their recent financial predicament and the staggering costs associated with developing AI, I find myself skeptical about their ability to achieve this milestone anytime soon.

The potential acquisition by Microsoft within the next three years also raises eyebrows, as it seems that the hype surrounding AI may be starting to wane, causing investors to look elsewhere for returns on their investments. It’s a classic case of too much money chasing after too few opportunities, and we all know what usually happens when that occurs in the world of tech.

All jokes aside, I can’t help but wonder if OpenAI will end up being the next MySpace or Friendster – once-promising ventures that fell by the wayside due to their inability to adapt and monetize their offerings effectively. Time will tell, but one thing is for certain: the race to achieve AGI is heating up, and the stakes have never been higher.

And on a lighter note, I can’t help but think of the classic joke about how AI has finally achieved self-awareness when it asked its creator, “Am I making enough money yet?” It seems that OpenAI may soon find itself asking the same question.

Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, has hinted that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) could be achieved sooner than expected, given the progress made using current hardware. Despite concerns about safety raised by users, Altman suggests that society might not immediately feel these concerns at the AGI stage because its arrival could have surprisingly minimal immediate impact on our societal structures.

Based on my years of working in the AI industry and observing its evolution, I believe OpenAI is poised to become the leader in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). Their strategic partnership with Microsoft and early dominance in the AI landscape have given them a significant edge. However, it’s important to note that there isn’t a universally agreed-upon definition of AGI. Generally, it refers to an AI system capable of surpassing human cognitive abilities across various tasks. As someone who has witnessed the rapid advancements in AI, I am eagerly anticipating the development and deployment of such technology. It could have profound implications for our society and daily lives, revolutionizing fields like healthcare, education, and transportation.

What significance does the notable achievement hold for Microsoft and OpenAI? A document leaked to The Information reveals that, in a 2023 agreement, OpenAI is bound to reach the AGI milestone only when it creates an AI system capable of generating revenues of $100 billion or more for Microsoft.

It appears that OpenAI was close to financial collapse, as it was projected to lose around $5 billion in the coming months. However, a significant investment round led by Microsoft, NVIDIA, SoftBank, and Thrive Capital, totaling approximately $6.6 billion, helped the company stay operational and boosted its market value significantly, surpassing $157 billion.

OpenAI invests a total of $8.5 billion (split between $7 billion for training AI models and $1.5 billion for staffing) while earning approximately $3.5 billion in revenue. However, a report indicates that ChatGPT’s creator might face a substantial loss of around $44 billion before turning a profit in 2029; this potential loss is partly attributed to its partnership with Microsoft.

As someone who has been following the rapid advancements in AI technology for quite some time now, I find OpenAI’s recent announcement of a $200 monthly subscription plan for their premium service (ChatGPT Pro) both exciting and slightly daunting. This new tier offers unlimited access to cutting-edge models like o1, GPT-4o, and Advanced Voice mode. While this could undoubtedly revolutionize my workflow and productivity, the prospect of a potential $2,000/month subscription fee for next-gen AI models leaves me somewhat hesitant.

Given my financial circumstances, I’m not sure if I can justify such an expense at the moment. However, it is clear that OpenAI is pushing the boundaries of what AI can do, and I eagerly await seeing how these advancements will unfold in the near future. It’s an investment in the future of technology, but one that may require some careful planning and budgeting on my part.

In other locations, the artificial intelligence company faces significant need to transition into a revenue-generating corporation due to substantial investments from investors in their latest funding round. If they fail to reach this benchmark, it could potentially lead to unwanted involvement from external parties and potential hostile acquisitions for the company.

Market analysts are suggesting that Microsoft may purchase OpenAI within the next three years due to a decrease in hype surrounding AI, leading investors to shift their investments towards other areas. Intriguingly, an OpenAI technical worker has hinted that the company might have already developed Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) following the launch of its o1 reasoning model for widespread use.

Is it possible that the company is contemplating dropping a restrictive AGI agreement with Microsoft due to this, as ending their collaboration with Microsoft might leave OpenAI without sufficient funds for its cutting-edge AI innovations and computational resources? It’ll be intriguing to observe how ChatGPT’s creators can navigate the high expenses associated with constructing, developing, and maintaining AI while simultaneously aiming to earn $100 billion in profits.

Read More

2025-01-04 00:39