Forget Satya Nadella’s Windows Phone fumble, Bill Gates’ “greatest mistake of all time” cost Microsoft $400 billion

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Maintaining a thriving business such as Microsoft for half a century isn’t an effortless task. Given the complexities involved in managing a multi-trillion-dollar sector, blunders are inevitable throughout the journey.

As a researcher examining Microsoft’s mobile strategy, I’ve come to contemplate that the decision to discontinue Windows Phone at its peak of popularity might have been a strategic misstep. Reflecting on Satya Nadella’s insights from an interview, it seems there were viable alternatives the company could have pursued instead of terminating the mobile division.

“The tough choice, a topic that many people often discuss – one I faced when assuming the CEO role – was our departure from what I’ll refer to as the mobile phone, as it was understood back then. Looking back now, I believe there might have been avenues for success if we had perhaps redefined the computing category encompassing PCs, tablets, and phones.”

Approaching Microsoft’s 50th anniversary, I can’t help but reflect on Bill Gates’ most significant blunder in his role as Microsoft CEO. In 2019, at a gathering with venture capital firm Village Global, he openly acknowledged that his biggest regret was missing out on the mobile market, which eventually became dominated by Android.

In hindsight, one of my biggest regrets was the missteps I took that ultimately prevented Microsoft from becoming the powerhouse it could have been, much like how Android has evolved today.

Microsoft, in virtually every aspect, stands out as one of the top software development companies, a fact clearly demonstrated in their financial reports. Based on this assumption, a renowned philanthropist suggests that creating an operating system akin to Android could have been a logical move for Microsoft, a strategy that would likely have solidified their success.

Essentially, Bill Gates admitted that Microsoft failed to capitalize on Android’s success because of poor management decisions on his part and legal restrictions imposed by antitrust laws, which hindered the company’s advancement.

Google’s lead provided it with a significant edge and competitive superiority over Microsoft, enabling it to secure Android in 2005 and debut its first device in 2008. It’s worth noting that Android, known for its flexibility and numerous customization possibilities, is the globally dominant operating system.

Was Microsoft’s Android fumble Bill Gates’ fault?

Lately, Android co-founder Rich Miner criticized Bill Gates, stating that his complaints about Microsoft’s loss of the mobile market to Android were unwarranted. Miner explained that he worked on developing Android in order to prevent Microsoft from monopolizing the phone industry as they had with personal computers and potentially hindering innovation.

In 2002, Miner was part of the team responsible for the development that led to Orange’s release of the first Windows Mobile phone. As reported by Miner:

“So, sorry, Bill, you’re more responsible for losing the $400B than you realize.”

Bill Gates acknowledges that, had there been no errors in his leadership, Microsoft could have grasped the Android opportunity and evolved into a leading company.

According to the Microsoft co-founder:

In the realm of software, especially for platforms, we often see winner-take-all markets. For instance, Microsoft missed its chance to become what Android is today in the non-Apple smartphone market. This means that Android has become the standard platform for non-Apple phones. If a platform has half as many apps or 90% fewer apps than Android, it’s heading towards a catastrophic decline. There’s only room for one major non-Apple operating system, and if Microsoft had been that, the value transferred from Company G (Google) to Company M (Microsoft) could have reached an astonishing $400 billion.

In terms of market share, Android significantly outperforms Windows, holding about 45.53% compared to Windows’ 25.36%. It remains intriguing if Microsoft can close the gap with Android, considering that the approaching end-of-support for Windows 10 and a growing discontent against Windows 11 might pose challenges.

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2025-04-02 13:10