As an analyst with over two decades of experience in political and market analysis, I have learned to take predictions with a grain of salt, especially when it comes to the unpredictable world of politics and the even more volatile crypto space. The recent data from Polymarket showing former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 10 points is indeed intriguing, but I would advise caution before jumping to conclusions.
Currently, former President Donald Trump is ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris by 10 points on the Polymarket forecasting platform. This represents a significant shift from the betting odds in September.
Based on the most recent Polymarket figures, it appears that Donald Trump is estimated to win the White House approximately 55% of the time, while Kamala Harris is predicted to do so about 45% of the time in November.
In four out of six key states that can sway elections, the previous president has managed to narrow Vice President Harris’ lead, and currently holds an advantage in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The Republican nominee enjoys their largest leads in Arizona and Georgia.
CNBC’s Jim Cramer predicts a Harris win
Initially, Trump was gaining ground against Harris on Polymarket, but CNBC’s Jim Cramer forecasted that Harris might emerge victorious in the 2024 Presidential race as he made a prediction on October 11th.
The television host expressed doubt, saying “It’s hard for me to imagine Donald Trump winning,” and this statement, based on what is known as the ‘reverse Cramer impact’, caused quite a stir on social media.
Among cryptocurrency traders, the concept known as the “Reversed Cramer Effect” is widely recognized. This principle suggests that if Jim Cramer predicts something, the exact opposite of his prediction might occur instead.
Trump’s public relations effort to court crypto voters
Trump’s chances of winning, as indicated by his odds on Polymarket, align with the former President’s conspicuous demonstrations of backing towards the cryptocurrency sector, which seem aimed at courting crypto enthusiasts as voters.
On September 18th, the Republican candidate was seen using Bitcoin (BTC) to buy burgers at a New York bar. This incident occurred after Trump’s World Liberty Financial, a decentralized financial initiative, unveiled plans for their own native token.
The announcement proved to be a tool with two sharp sides, causing varied responses within the cryptocurrency society. Journalist Nic Carter stated his belief that it could potentially harm Donald Trump’s chances of getting elected, particularly if it were hacked.
The seasoned reporter elaborated, “This DeFi target promises to be the most enticing yet, as it’s a spin-off from a protocol previously victimized by hackers.” Contrastingly, some experts in the field argue that the outcome of the 2024 Presidential election will hold minimal impact on Bitcoin’s price or the broader adoption of cryptocurrencies.
Dan Tapiero, the founder of 10T Holdings, has expressed his belief that the value of Bitcoin could potentially hit $100,000, irrespective of who emerges victorious in the election scheduled for November.
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2024-10-13 19:09