Is AI a fad? 76% of researchers say scaling has “plateaued” — but firms like OpenAI continue splurging billions into a dead end

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With increasing sophistication in generative AI, it’s clear that substantial financial investments are necessary for swift development. To give you an idea, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman estimates that achieving his grand AI vision would necessitate approximately $7 trillion over a significant period, along with the construction of 36 semiconductor plants and additional data centers.

It’s worth noting that various sources challenge the ongoing advancements in AI, implying it may just be a passing trend. Furthermore, one prediction states that around 30% of ongoing AI initiatives could be discontinued by 2025 once the proof-of-concept phase is complete.

As an ardent follower, I must admit that there have been assertions suggesting that leading AI labs such as Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI have encountered a scaling hurdle, making it difficult for them to develop sophisticated AI models. However, these giants in the field are undeterred by such claims, instead pouring vast sums of money into their AI endeavors. For example, OpenAI’s ambitious Stargate project, valued at half a trillion dollars, is aimed at establishing data centers nationwide in the United States, with the ultimate goal of furthering its advancements in artificial intelligence.

On the other hand, it appears that even experts in artificial intelligence are skeptical about the effectiveness of current AI approaches, expressing reservations about whether they can accomplish major breakthroughs like Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) or superintelligence.

Based on a study highlighted by Futurism, approximately three-quarters (76%) of the AI experts involved in the study expressed doubts that the current AI approaches will be successful, considering them as “unlikely” or “very unlikely” to work effectively.

In this case, the research in question involved 475 experts in artificial intelligence, who are members of the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence. The objective of the study is to measure the effectiveness of existing AI methodologies, evaluated by their accomplishments.

It’s important to understand that significant work is involved in expanding AI capabilities, ranging from data processing facilities to the hardware needed, not forgetting the resources required for training and operating AI models. In the realm of top AI research facilities, an Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) designation stands as a prestigious achievement, representing an AI system capable of surpassing human cognitive abilities.

As a tech enthusiast, I’m always on the lookout for advancements in AI. It’s fascinating to see how top labs are pouring resources into their research to get closer to this milestone. Yet, it seems many companies are stuck between a tough spot – they’re practically skirting the edge of financial ruin.

In the previous year, OpenAI was teetering on the brink of bankruptcy due to projected losses of around $5 billion as a result of substantial investments in AI expansion. Yet, key investors such as Microsoft, NVIDIA, SoftBank, and Thrive Capital managed to secure $6.6 billion through fundraising, preventing financial collapse for OpenAI and significantly increasing its market value to over $157 billion.

DeepSeek’s ultra-cheap model makes difficult to state AI progression’s case

While speaking to the NewScientist, Stuart Russel, a computer scientist at UC Berkeley indicated:

It’s appeared questionable to me for quite some time when massive funds were poured into expansion without any significant effort to grasp what was happening. Recently, it seems clearer than ever to most people that the traditional advantages of scaling have reached a limit.

While money is certainly a significant concern in the advancement of AI, it’s important to note that energy consumption plays an equally critical role. Interestingly, just Google and Microsoft together consume as much energy as what is required to power approximately 100 nations.

In other regions, the appearance of Chinese startup DeepSeek, known for its affordable AI model, has sparked worry among investors and stakeholders. This model outperforms OpenAI’s exclusive AI model at a significantly reduced cost, implying that perhaps money is not always the primary factor in the growth of Artificial Intelligence.

OpenAI is similarly experimenting with a method called “thoughtful processing at generation time” using their newest models. This technique enables the model to ponder over responses for a longer period, rather than quickly spitting out answers as it did previously.

I’ve noticed that Arvind Narayanan, a scholar in computer science at Princeton University, doesn’t hold high hopes for this solution resolving our predicament completely. In his words, “However, this approach is not likely to be the magic solution we’re seeking.

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2025-03-28 15:39