The upcoming Marvel movie is predicted to underperform compared to previous MCU films, potentially matching the box office results of “The Marvels.” This could serve as a warning sign for future film releases.
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View Urgent ForecastIt appears that according to all indicators, the movie “Thunderbolts” is turning into a significant warning sign for The Walt Disney Company. Initially marketed as a bold, hard-hitting countermeasure to Marvel exhaustion, this anti-hero team-up film now seems destined to rank among the least successful films in the Marvel Cinematic Universe’s history. It may even hold the dubious distinction of being the lowest-grossing MCU movie, depending on how box office figures develop over the next few weeks. Furthermore, with two other upcoming MCU releases showing signs of instability, this could be the year when the world’s most successful cinematic franchise experiences a significant drop in audience appeal.
As per Box Office Pro’s predictions, the upcoming film “Thunderbolts” is projected to debut domestically over the opening weekend within the range of $63 million to $85 million, with a more specific expectation around $70 million. This would place it among the lower three openings for the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU), trailing behind films such as “Shang-Chi” and “Eternals”, and only slightly surpassing the franchise’s historical low, “The Marvels,” which earned a mere $46 million upon release last year and struggled with a global gross under $210 million.
First clip from ‘THUNDERBOLTS*’
In theaters on May 2.
— DiscussingFilm (@DiscussingFilm) April 12, 2025
Of particular worry is that Thunderbolts doesn’t come with the usual obstacles that have hindered other underperforming Marvel productions. Unlike new intellectual properties with unproven characters or releases during a pandemic, or being buried without much promotion or going head-to-head with strong box office competitors, it seems like this should be a relatively safe bet given its cast of well-known characters drawn from Disney+ shows and Phase 3-4 films. However, the interest in it is at best lukewarm.
The initial sales data paints a concerning picture: tickets are on sale, but there seem to be many unsold ones, even for the Thursday previews and Friday’s prime-time shows. It appears that the fanbase isn’t showing much excitement about being first in line. As Cosmic Book News mentions, Thunderbolts is banking on positive word-of-mouth to improve its situation – a risky strategy for a franchise that has been losing the trust of both casual viewers and dedicated fans.
The dependence on social media hype resembles the unexpected success of the Minecraft film, which defied poor presale figures due to a TikTok-induced frenzy. However, what sets them apart? Minecraft benefited from novelty, Gen Z appeal, and a wider fanbase not confined by a decade of lore. In contrast, Thunderbolts seems like a collection of secondary characters hastily assembled following Marvel’s decline in A-list popularity.
If Thunderbolts underperforms, it would signify the second consecutive MCU flop of 2025, with Captain America: Brave New World leading the way. This movie, which debuted to a modest $88.8 million over President’s Day weekend and has struggled to surpass $200 million domestically after over a month in cinemas, is indicative of waning interest, despite being centered around a key Avenger character. The fact that it failed to generate excitement suggests that the brand itself might be experiencing significant decline.
In the future, Disney pins high expectations on “Fantastic Four: First Steps,” set for release in July, which is being touted as a “reboot” and a new beginning for the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU). However, it’s a significant burden to carry for a franchise that has previously struggled twice. Moreover, today’s audiences are less inclined to view the Marvel brand as an automatic assurance of quality or thrill. There are several indications that the Fantastic Four might not fare well.
Disney has poured billions into the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU), not only on film budgets but also on Disney+ series, merchandise tie-ins, and park integration projects. If the MCU’s slate fails in 2025, it would go beyond financial disappointments; it could shake investor trust, weaken the appeal of Disney+, and possibly compel the company to take tough decisions regarding what was previously considered its most secure intellectual property (IP).
With Thunderbolts struggling at the box office, Brave New World faltering, and only Deadpool and Wolverine offering any prospects for a blockbuster, it’s evident that the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) is losing its cultural grip. If Thunderbolts turns out to be one of Marvel Studios’ lowest-performing films ever, Disney might have to concede what fans have been anticipating for some time – the Marvel formula is flawed, and no more cameos or callbacks can mend it.
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2025-04-15 19:55