Marvel’s Thunderbolts: A Flop in Disguise?

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The summer blockbuster season has kicked off, and once again Marvel Studios finds itself under pressure to meet high expectations. The newest Marvel film, titled “Thunderbolts,” brought in $76 million during its debut weekend at U.S. box offices – placing it at the top spot, but not enough to avoid being compared to some of the studio’s biggest flops.

Media trade publications and various Hollywood outlets have swiftly characterized the opening as a “promising debut,” attributing it to the positive reviews and audience feedback for Thunderbolts. The movie has garnered an impressive 88% critic score on Rotten Tomatoes, along with a 94% rating from All Audiences and a 95% approval from Verified Viewers. Additionally, it received an optimistic A- grade from CinemaScore.

Typically, such a response suggests that strong financial performance and solid earnings are likely in the coming weeks.

In the aftermath of Marvel’s post-“Endgame” phase, simply garnering positive reviews isn’t sufficient anymore. The fact is, a $76 million opening for a movie with an alleged production budget of $180 million and marketing costs estimated at $100 million doesn’t equate to success—it signals concern, particularly when it follows the same trend as Marvel’s other recent underachievers.

Familiar Territory—And Not in a Good Way

To understand the stakes, let’s look at the company Thunderbolts keeps at the box office.

In 2021, the film titled The Eternals debuted with a box office take of $71 million and eventually amassed a global total of $402 million. However, it was met with criticism and often labeled as the studio’s first significant financial failure.

In 2021, the movie “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” made its debut with an initial gross of $75 million and ultimately earned a total of approximately $432 million worldwide. Contributing factors included relaxed box office rules during lockdown periods and positive word of mouth among audiences. Notably, this Marvel production had a lower budget compared to other films on the list, specifically $150 million, making it more feasible to achieve profitability.

2023’s release of “The Marvels” – a film that has become infamous for underperforming at the box office – debuted with a take of $63.3 million but struggled to reach a global total of $206 million, despite being the successor of a blockbuster with a $1 billion budget.

Captain America: A Bold, Novel Era (2025)

In this latest installment, the much-anticipated Marvel film flopped with an opening weekend take of $100 million, despite a staggering production budget rumored to surpass $300 million.

In the group, Thunderbolts finds itself perfectly positioned – it’s not as destructive as The Marvels, but it’s not far off. It’s also significantly lower than the $100 million+ openings that were once common for Marvel films. Despite Captain America: Brave New World‘s impressive $100 million opening, it’s still considered a financial letdown due to its lack of sustained success in the subsequent weeks. Its total worldwide earnings amount to just $414 million, barely covering its production costs, distribution fees, and international sharing after cinematic taxes are taken into account.

In this scenario, what’s the likely outcome for “Thunderbolts”? If its path mirrors that of “Eternals” or “Brave New World”, it could potentially earn between $400–500 million globally. However, even with such earnings, it might fall short of covering its costs (including marketing expenses) and profit distribution, due to the revenue sharing agreements in place.

Generally, studios keep around 50-60% of the ticket sales within the country, and roughly 40% from international box offices. This implies that a movie similar to this might need to earn between $700 million and $750 million worldwide just to cover its expenses.

The Spin vs. the Reality

In Thunderbolts, lesser-known characters like Sebastian Stan’s Bucky Barnes, Florence Pugh’s Yelena Belova, Wyatt Russell’s John Walker, and David Harbour’s Red Guardian are being highlighted, suggesting that the cast has “above average” representation for a new superhero story. However, it might be challenging to market this ensemble as “new” because of their significant ties to the Marvel Cinematic Universe and their roles in previous significant productions. These characters may not have the same solo appeal as Iron Man or Spider-Man, but they are well-established figures within the MCU.

The movie is being marketed by Marvel as a grittier, team-focused blockbuster intended to revitalize a series some feel has strayed off course. However, it seems that persuading the cinema-going public has become more challenging than ever before.

The favorable response implies that Thunderbolts is indeed of high quality – an unexpected twist, as it’s troubling to see its lackluster performance at the box office. If even Marvel struggles to captivate audiences with a film they enjoy, what might be the outcome when reception is divided or unfavorable?

Marvel: Another Disney Brand in Decline

The crucial issue that needs addressing is trust, which Marvel has struggled to maintain over the past few years. Their frequent release schedule, inconsistent storytelling, and convoluted continuity across both movies and streaming platforms have eroded the enthusiasm viewers once had for their releases, treating them as highly anticipated events.

Now, even when critics and audiences align, the enthusiasm simply isn’t there.

The genuine issue of brand fatigue is evident – and it’s clearly visible. Thunderbolts is being marketed as a “positive step,” but even positive word of mouth can’t hide the fact that Marvel’s recent box office earnings have dropped significantly compared to their pre-2020 peaks. A movie with such high production costs and extensive marketing support should not be performing on par with films labeled as financial flops.

The second weekend’s decline in ticket sales for this film will provide important insights. If Thunderbolts performs better than anticipated, it could be classified as a “moderate success” instead of an “absolute failure.” However, this is not the high standard Marvel Studios used to be held to. Nowadays, even a good opening for an average movie is considered a significant win – simply because expectations have significantly decreased.

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2025-05-05 19:56