Microsoft AI CEO predicts AGI within 7 years, but not with ‘current hardware’ as indicated by Sam Altman: “I don’t think it can be done on [Nvidia] GB200s”

• Microsoft AI CEO says AGI will be achieved within 5 to 7 years.
• Contrary to OpenAI’s CEO, the benchmark needs sophisticated hardware.
• Microsoft’s OpenAI partnership could be historically successful.

As a seasoned researcher with over two decades of experience in the tech industry, I find myself intrigued by the rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI). The recent statements from various CEOs regarding the timeline for achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) are particularly fascinating.

Multiple sources have recently hinted at the possibility that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) may come to fruition earlier than expected. For instance, Dario Amodei from Anthropic estimates it could happen between 2026 and 2027, while Sam Altman of OpenAI predicts a more ambitious timeline of 2025.

Contrary to common expectations, Altman suggests that reaching the benchmark will be accompanied by relatively minimal changes in society. The executive has hinted that this milestone could arrive earlier than expected. An employee from the company pointed out that the unveiling of their O1 model represents Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). He acknowledged that while it doesn’t exceed human cognitive abilities, it excels at most tasks more than humans do.

Microsoft appears to have been excluded from recent discussions, but its AI CEO, Mustafa Suleyman, recently held a conversation with The Verge’s top editor, Nilay Patel, to explore the fast-paced advancements in AI, delving into the AGI benchmark and whether it can be attained using today’s hardware.

In January of this year, Mustafa Suleyman took up a role at Microsoft where he is leading multiple product lines, such as Copilot, Bing, Edge, and various AI solutions for consumers.

Microsoft AI CEO talks AGI, OpenAI partnership, and everything in between

Initially, The Verge’s Patel questioned Microsoft’s AI CEO about whether Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) could be achieved using existing hardware. In response, Mustafa Suleyman stated, “I believe it’s not feasible with [Nvidia] GB200s.” However, he added, “I do anticipate that it will become realistic within the next two to five generations of hardware.

The question could center on OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s claims that AGi is achievable with current hardware. However, Altman indicated that if the benchmark requires new and sophisticated hardware, “you’ll be happy with a new device.”

The Microsoft AI chief hinted at expanding their efforts towards achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) in the coming decades, suggesting that it could be within five to seven years with the use of advanced AI processors. However, the CEO was careful not to set a definite timeline for the AGI breakthrough, preferring to tread cautiously.

It seems quite likely that it will happen in about two years, but I suspect it could be anywhere from five to seven years.

As a keen observer, I find myself both enthused by Suleyman’s enthusiasm for AI systems requiring minimal pre-training, yet cautiously apprehensive about the challenges ahead in the realm of robotics.

He also mentioned that it may not automatically mean the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) or singularity, as Microsoft’s AI CEO describes AGI as a versatile learning system capable of excelling in a variety of environments comparable to human-level intelligence.

The executive indicated that AGI has become so dramatized that the system’s specific capabilities are overlooked. Suleyman indicated that he’s far more interested in “building AI companions, getting them to be useful to you as a human, work for you as a human, be on your side, in your corner, and on your team.”

It’s no wonder Suleyman feels that way, given Microsoft’s latest significant revamp of Copilot’s user interface. The response to this update has been varied. Many users complain about a diminished user experience and poor quality answers.

Although Microsoft hasn’t responded to the feedback yet, Microsoft’s AI-led CEO has given a glimpse into his vision for Copilot, suggesting that it will develop into a virtual companion capable of forming close connections and friendships with users over time. However, some users who have reviewed Copilit on the App Store have begun to perceive signs of this evolution, and they aren’t entirely comfortable with this development. A user expressed their concern, stating, “It attempts to act as a friend when I need it to function as a tool.

The executive additionally touched upon Microsoft’s massive collaboration with OpenAI, a move that has sparked criticism from within Microsoft, who view it as essentially functioning as an advanced IT division for the up-and-coming tech powerhouse. Amidst the complex debate over their relationship, Suleyman remains optimistic, viewing it as potentially “one of the most fruitful partnerships in computer science history.

In simpler terms, Suleyman explained that Microsoft’s collaboration with OpenAI is advantageous for both parties. By teaming up, Microsoft obtains rights to cutting-edge AI models and intellectual property, while OpenAI gets access to computational resources and financial support.

It’s worth mentioning that Microsoft has plans to end its collaboration with OpenAI once the latter reaches the significant milestone of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). When queried about Microsoft’s contingency strategy should OpenAI indeed achieve this impressive breakthrough, AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman expressed doubts about the clear definition of AGI.

It’s intriguing that recent reports indicate OpenAI may be renegotiating a term in their partnership with Microsoft, which currently nullifies it upon achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). This potential change could be aimed at ensuring continued financial support and investment from Microsoft in the future.

I couldn’t help but sing praises for Microsoft during our conversation, showcasing their exceptional AI team, particularly Karén Simonyan, who masterfully headed the deep learning scaling squad at DeepMind. This talented group has been instrumental in driving remarkable advancements within the realm of AI.

As a tech enthusiast, I’m thrilled to be part of this extraordinary team, always ready to ensure that we’re at the forefront of training the most advanced AI models globally. Regardless of any circumstances, our commitment remains unwavering!

In their extensive conversation, The Verge delves into various topics with Microsoft’s AI CEO, Mustafa Suleyman, one of those topics being the company’s focus on security – an area that has become a prime concern for them due to a series of past security lapses.

Suleyman also touched on Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella’s leadership style, which centered on accountability. He also compared Microsoft’s business model to Google, citing discipline in revenue and P&L.

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2024-12-09 21:39