Toncoin soars 30% – But THIS indicator presents a warning sign to investors

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    Toncoin remained in a downtrend despite large gains.
    A pattern from mid-August is recurring and will give TON bulls pause.

As an analyst with over 10 years of experience in the cryptocurrency market, I’ve seen my fair share of bull runs and bear markets. Looking at Toncoin [TON], while it’s impressive to see a 32.84% gain in a week, the lack of substantial volume increase and the recurring pattern from mid-August give me pause.

Toncoin (TON) experienced a significant increase of approximately 32.84% over the past week, rising from $4.43 on September 6th to $5.885 by the following week. However, despite this robust growth, the overall trend in the daily chart still appeared bearish.

As we approach the coming trading week, Toncoin is among the significant assets with a strong bullish outlook, following its impressive performance in the last week. Can the momentum set by the buyers continue and drive the rally further?

Rally, or a liquidity hunt before a continued downtrend?

Toncoin soars 30% – But THIS indicator presents a warning sign to investors

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Over the past week, there was a substantial increase in returns, yet the trading activity didn’t surge noticeably. In stark contrast, when the price dropped from $6.8 on the 24th of August to $5.1 within two subsequent days, there was a markedly higher level of trading volume.

As a researcher, I’ve noticed that the trading volume over the recent days has been similar to the levels we saw during mid-June. During that time, TON was trading in the $7.1-$7.6 range, but it didn’t show a clear upward trend. To sustain a significant rise, it seems we might need more substantial trading volume.

In simpler terms, the Cash-to-Market Factor (CMF) was at a level indicating substantial incoming investment, and the Daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) moved beyond 50, suggesting a positive trend. This situation made bullish investors optimistic that a shift in market dynamics might happen imminently.

Is this bounce a profit-taking opportunity?

Toncoin soars 30% – But THIS indicator presents a warning sign to investors

Around mid-August, the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio temporarily rose above zero for a 30-day span. Interestingly, when viewed from a price movement perspective, TON was experiencing a descending trend during this period. A few days later, on August 24th, the price started declining, and it pulled the MVRV downward along with it.

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Read Toncoin’s [TON] Price Prediction 2024-25

Over the last several days, the MVRV has moved back into positive zones, yet the bearish trend for TON persists and could possibly extend, much like it did during the previous month.

Conversely, it’s been noticed that the average age of coins (in circulation) has been on an upward trend lately, suggesting accumulation and optimism among traders. However, it’s advisable to exercise caution until the $6.1 resistance level is surpassed.

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2024-09-15 18:15