Opinion by: Daniele Bernardi, Founder of DIAMAN and CryptoMoon Contributor
As a researcher with a background in both traditional finance and cryptocurrencies, I’ve always been intrigued by bold predictions like the one made by Michael Saylor regarding Bitcoin. With my experience in developing the “Rate of Adoption” model, I can’t help but weigh in on this conversation.
While I appreciate Mr. Saylor’s enthusiasm and vision, I must admit that his 29% annual growth rate projection over the next 21 years feels a tad optimistic, even for Bitcoin. However, it’s essential to remember that Bitcoin’s trajectory is anything but predictable.
Our model, based on the power law and the growth of non-zero wallets, suggests a more conservative approach. By 2045, we estimate Bitcoin’s price could reach $8.3 million on the median curve and potentially exceed $21.6 million on the higher curve.
In 2025, I’ve recalibrated the model to account for increased adoption driven by Bitcoin ETFs, which has led me to project a peak price of $261,000. But remember, these are just estimates, and there are no guarantees in the world of cryptocurrencies.
As always, I encourage thorough research and analysis before making any investment decisions. If you’re still unsure, remember this: Bitcoin is like a rollercoaster – some people get off too soon, missing the thrilling drops and loops that come later. Don’t be one of those people!
Lastly, let me leave you with a bit of humor: If Bitcoin were a rollercoaster, we’d all be on it now, wondering if we should have bought our tickets years ago. But hey, better late than never, right?
Daniele Bernardi is a serial entrepreneur and founder of Diaman, a group active in investment management, software development, and crypto activities. He was recognized as an “Inventor” by the European Patent Office for his European and Russian Patent in the field of mobile payments.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of CryptoMoon.
Opinion by: Daniele Bernardi, Founder of DIAMAN
In a recent discussion, Michael Saylor, the CEO of MicroStrategy, shared an intriguing perspective on Bitcoin. His firm is among the top holders of Bitcoin in its reserves, trailing only BlackRock – a globally recognized asset management giant – that has introduced a Bitcoin-based exchange-traded fund (ETF).
As predicted by Michael Saylor, it is expected that the value of Bitcoin (BTC) could potentially increase at an average yearly rate of around 29% for the next 21 years. If this growth trend holds true, Bitcoin’s worth could reach a staggering $13 million by the year 2045, in his optimistic forecast. Here’s how he laid out his prediction:
“Every Bitcoin you don’t buy is gonna cost you $13 million, my friend.”
That is a bold statement and deserves careful analysis to determine its validity.
Individuals who keep up with my insights may recognize the “Rate of Adoption” model. Essentially, this model links Bitcoin’s value to the expansion rate of active wallets, defined as those that hold at least some amount of Bitcoin.
Back in February 2020, I unveiled my prediction model at the Quant Workshop Conference, a gathering hosted by Diaman Partners Ltd. My model projected that Bitcoin would reach its peak for 2021 around $63,000, falling just shy of the record high of $67,000 it hit in October 2021.
In 2023, I updated the model and published the results in CryptoMoon.
The prediction for the current cycle was $130,000, a price Bitcoin will soon reach.
Given the recent approval of Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. and eleven companies simultaneously marketing this investment tool, it’s evident that the circumstances have shifted dramatically. Originally, I intended to revise the model in fall 2024, but unexpectedly, things have moved ahead more swiftly.
Using the revised prediction model, I’m prepared to forecast Bitcoin’s potential value by the year 2025, prior to its probable entry into the subsequent cryptocurrency winter around fall and winter of that same year.
Before providing my short-term forecast, I first examined Saylor’s projection and compared it to our model. While he foresees an average annual return for the next 21 years based on a general approach, our model applies a more complex power law method. This method links the average price per Bitcoin wallet to the number of non-zero wallets in circulation. By multiplying these variables, we can estimate the anticipated market capitalization of Bitcoin, which in turn helps us calculate its price.
Absolutely, these predictions are built under the supposition that Bitcoin persists and its acceptance grows according to a power law pattern, as we’ve seen so far.
According to the provided chart, our estimates suggest that by the year 2045, Bitcoin’s price might climb as high as $8.3 million on a typical growth trajectory. If we consider the steep increase at the end of each bullish cycle (which follows a semi-exponential pattern), it could potentially surge beyond $21.6 million.
It is key to remain aware of Bitcoin’s potential trajectory, as the market is filled with individuals who settled for gains of +60% or +100%, only to exit too early and miss out on subsequent, extraordinary price increases.
Instead of forever hoarding Bitcoin like Saylor does, I’m not recommending that. However, it would certainly be wise to hold onto it for as long as feasible, or until it’s evident that a better and more practical alternative emerges (which, at the moment, doesn’t seem to exist).
Next, let’s shift our focus towards the anticipated peak rate, around the year 2025, as suggested by the Adoption Model. Notably, this projection takes into account the accelerated adoption spurred by the introduction of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs).
The 2025 forecast for Bitcoin’s peak price is $261,000, nearly double the previous estimate.
Of course, there are no guarantees that these values will materialize, nor should this be considered investment advice. I always recommend conducting thorough research and analysis before making any investment decisions, ideally with a qualified financial adviser who can guide you on the appropriate allocation within your portfolio. It is crucial to understand the dynamics and potential of Bitcoin thoroughly. Otherwise, it may always seem too expensive to buy.
Glancing at the graph before us, it’s clear that although Bitcoin has reached unprecedented heights, we remain significantly below the estimated ceiling predicted to represent the peak level for 2025.
I’ll leave you with a particularly insightful phrase: Everyone gets the Bitcoin price they deserve.
Daniele Bernardi is a repeated business innovator who established Diaman, a multifaceted organization specializing in investment management, software development, and cryptocurrency endeavors. He has been honored by the European Patent Office as an “Inventor” for his patents related to mobile payments, both in Europe and Russia.
This write-up serves for general knowledge and doesn’t constitute legal or financial guidance. It solely reflects the personal perspectives, insights, and opinions of the author, which may not align with those of CryptoMoon.
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2024-12-18 18:09