2025 is finally here, and for Xbox fans, that marks another year of dualities.
This year is expected to be Microsoft’s strongest ever in terms of first-party content production, marking a significant shift following nearly a decade of demand from Xbox enthusiasts. With Microsoft’s recent acquisition spree finally showing results, we saw Indiana Jones, a game worthy of Game of the Year contention late last year. Second-party publishing achieved notable victories with STALKER 2 and Palworld. Previously hesitant titles like Genshin Impact, Final Fantasy Pixel Remaster Collection, and Death Stranding also became available on Xbox. Add to that a steady stream of content from Blizzard, Activision, Bethesda, and Xbox Game Studios, and 2024 turned out to be an exceptional year for sheer gaming content.
But there was a major elephant in the room to contest with as well.
Microsoft’s recent actions seem to contradict past statements about Xbox exclusive games, implying that the console market is no longer large enough for its independent operation. This shift has led to an increasing number of Xbox games appearing on PlayStation, causing Xbox fans to question Microsoft’s future as a platform holder. I anticipate that the years leading up to 2025 will continue to raise such concerns.
Let’s explore some 2025 forecasts and unconventional views about the Xbox gaming system, and envision what its tomorrow could be.
More content than ever for Xbox, and more content than ever outside of Xbox
Microsoft is experiencing an unusual dichotomy as it currently holds the most prominent mobile games, leading shooter service game, top MMORPG, and numerous other billion-dollar franchises. The acquisition of Activision-Blizzard was anticipated to be a significant victory for Xbox, empowering it to control some of the largest entertainment brands ever, but thus far, it has not resulted in the revitalization for Xbox that many enthusiasts had expected.
It seems that the widespread assumption that Activision-Blizzard being too big would not yield exclusive content for Xbox console players has proven to be inaccurate. Instead, quite unexpectedly, it appears that Xbox may be giving up all its exclusives to PlayStation and Nintendo Switch 2. This revelation follows statements from Xbox CEO Phil Spencer who emphasized the significance of exclusive games for Xbox. He acknowledged that Sony uses profits from games like Minecraft to secure exclusivity deals for popular titles such as Silent Hill 2, Stellar Blade, and potentially Black Myth Wukong. Moreover, Spencer admitted that Xbox fans require transparency regarding which games will remain or leave the exclusive realm. Interestingly, he also hinted at Indiana Jones not being exclusive to Xbox anymore, a prediction that came true just months later when it was announced that Indiana Jones would indeed be available on multiple platforms. In summary, the situation seems to indicate a shift in Xbox’s exclusivity strategy.
Phil Spencer, 2020: “I’m not particularly fond of the ongoing speculation surrounding each of our games about whether they will be released on Switch or not. I believe we should communicate more clearly to our fans about what they can expect from us.”
January 6, 2024: Fans evaluate Xbox based on their deeds and promises. [Tweet link]
Xbox, much like many large corporations, relies heavily on future predictions, particularly those concerning the gaming industry, including consoles. Unfortunately, the current climate in this sector isn’t particularly favorable. Xbox, being at a disadvantageous position, has been impacted more than others, experiencing significant drops in hardware sales quarter after quarter since the launch wave of the Xbox Series X|S platform subsided. However, these hardware numbers don’t paint the whole picture. The rate of growth in the console gaming audience hasn’t kept pace with rising costs, forcing Xbox to explore alternative income sources. This has involved platforms such as Steam and the Microsoft Store thus far, but in 2025, it will involve PlayStation more extensively than ever before. The move to allow iconic franchises like Halo on PlayStation marks a significant shift for Xbox, leading to an uncertain future.
For 2025, it’s likely that annual decreases in Microsoft hardware will continue, fueling their “Project Latitude” approach. With this shift, more games will be moving towards PlayStation 5 and Nintendo Switch 2, as Microsoft aims to expand its user base irrespective of location. The expense of attracting new Xbox users has grown beyond the cost of sustaining PlayStation support, at least in the immediate future. However, current Xbox hardware users should not worry, as this doesn’t imply they will be disadvantaged.
This year, Microsoft still has some Xbox exclusives in store, even if some of them are “timed” exclusives. On January 23rd, Microsoft’s Xbox Developer_Direct will showcase DOOM: The Dark Ages, South of Midnight, and Clair Obscur: Expedition 33. There’s also a fourth game that we won’t reveal yet, but our sources suggest it’s part of a well-known Japanese intellectual property with a long history, which should delight many fans. In fact, Microsoft has been gaining significant backing from the region recently with studios like Square Enix for Final Fantasy, HoYoverse for Genshin Impact, and Sega/ATLUS for Persona. We think this new game will continue this positive trend.
2025 seems poised to be Microsoft’s most impressive and formidable product lineup yet, but it’s doubtful that this will significantly expand its hardware presence, which raises questions about the long-term sustainability of the Xbox hardware ecosystem. However, imagine if Xbox were to merge with Windows itself? As a passionate fan, I can’t help but ponder what such a move could bring.
With divided attention, Xbox is becoming a jack of all trades, but will it also end up as a master of none?
At CES 2025, Microsoft’s Vice President for Next Generation, Jason Ronald, joined forces with Lenovo and Valve to delve into an enticing segment in gaming hardware: the portable PC gaming device. However, there’s a challenge at hand – Windows isn’t built to work optimally with handheld controllers as it primarily anticipates the presence of a mouse. This has made devices like the Steam Deck and upcoming Steam OS gadgets quite user-friendly in this category, even though Microsoft may claim superior compatibility. The process of running PC Game Pass on a Steam Deck or accessing games from launchers such as Genshin Impact or Fortnite can sometimes be a hassle.
GUIDE: How to install Windows on a Steam Deck
Microsoft intends to enhance the user-friendliness of Windows on devices by rolling out multiple updates for features such as the Xbox Game Bar, among others, through 2025. However, it seems Microsoft may be planning to take things a step further, potentially merging the Xbox and PC experiences in a way that was once considered unattainable.
One of the less recognized advantages of Xbox is ‘Xbox Play Anywhere’, which allows you to purchase a game only once and play it on either your PC or Xbox console using a single license. This feature has recently been expanded to include Xbox Cloud Gaming, making it possible to enjoy a seamless gaming experience wherever you are. Steam is starting to catch up in this regard, but both Xbox and Steam are currently competing to provide the ultimate ‘play games anywhere’ experience. It seems that they will be investing more in accommodating both players and developers to achieve this goal first.
Despite a drop in Xbox hardware sales, the number of Microsoft console users has remained stable, as stated by Xbox chief Phil Spencer. Moreover, Microsoft has various strategies to increase its total user base within the Xbox community. For instance, Xbox Cloud Gaming, which can be considered an extension of console users, recently achieved a significant usage milestone. Additionally, Microsoft is aiming to expand Xbox Cloud Gaming, introducing enhancements such as 4K streaming, higher bitrates, PC game compatibility, and more buy-to-own Xbox cloud games, with frequent updates as they increase their network storage capacity. Furthermore, Microsoft is dedicating more processing power to accommodate the growing demand for Xbox Cloud Gaming, which is experiencing robust growth in regions where console hardware is perceived as a premium luxury.
I often wonder if the Xbox can effectively cater to multiple objectives without neglecting its current users. As they expand into PC platforms and cloud devices such as the LG TV and Amazon Fire Stick, are existing console users content with their experience? Will prospective customers view Xbox Series X|S consoles as a competitive choice over Steam Decks, PlayStations, and other devices? I have a feeling that Microsoft may intensify its hardware ambitions this year to refute speculations about withdrawing from console production, but also to reaffirm its commitment to developing cutting-edge technology.
It seems there are signs that Microsoft continues developing Xbox’s “Sebile” haptics controller, and Phil Spencer confirmed they’re working on an independent Xbox handheld device. The question arises whether this handheld will operate on the Xbox OS or Windows itself. Given that the Xbox Store houses significantly more games than the PC Microsoft Store, it’s unclear if Microsoft can legally sell those Xbox games without creating some sort of emulation layer. However, such an approach might lead to contractual issues with publishers. But if the handheld is just a Windows-based device, one wonders why Microsoft would compete with their OEM partners like Lenovo in this manner. I anticipate we’ll soon discover more about where Xbox plans to direct its existing users—I certainly don’t want my digital Xbox collection to become obsolete on an unpromising platform.
An Xbox balancing act
Microsoft is attempting a delicate juggling act, as they strive to develop platforms for mobile, cloud, and PC devices, all while maintaining satisfaction among their current user base. In terms of content, I anticipate that Xbox will experience its most successful year for upcoming games. Regarding the platform, however, I foresee more uncertainty and apprehension regarding the future of the Xbox hardware ecosystem. The concept of “Xbox everywhere” is inspiring, but it must be executed seamlessly, catering to both developers and consumers alike.
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2025-01-13 21:09