In the grand tapestry of financial theatre, Bitcoin (BTC) chose to don the cloak of disappointment at the Wall Street ball on March 13, as the US inflation figures decided to take a rather undignified dive.
Oh, the irony! Bitcoin, following the stocks like a lost puppy, saw the BTC/USD pairing whimsically dancing around $81,500, a dreary 2.3% decrease from its previous day’s attire.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for February, in a most unoriginal move, mirrored the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the day before, both falling short of the expectations of the common crowd.
“The index for final demand,” the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) droned on, “advanced a mere 3.2 percent over the year that February encapsulated.”
“In a twist of economic theatre, a 0.3-percent ascent in prices for goods was counterbalanced by a 0.2-percent descent in services,” the report stated with a yawn.
Inflation’s cooling breath, which should have been a zephyr of hope for crypto and risk assets, instead stifled the US dollar‘s attempted resurgence, as evidenced by the rather lackluster US Dollar Index (DXY).
And yet, stocks and crypto alike remained as still as statues, prompting The Kobeissi Letter to draw the most tenuous of lines to the ongoing US trade war.
“The market’s reaction to the inflation data,” it wrote, “was as muted as a society matron at an opera, a stark contrast to the S&P 500’s usual dramatics.”
“Why, one must ask, is this so? Alas, it gives our dear President Trump all the more reason to carry on with his peculiar brand of economic diplomacy.”
Kobeissi suggested that the trade war efforts may now intensify, as if the cooling inflation were a challenge to be met with more fervor.
“Markets, it seems, are preparing for a bumpy ride,” it concluded, “as if the best inflation data in months were not enough to smooth the way.”
As we await the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision, the market’s expectations are as flat as yesterday’s champagne, with a mere 1% chance of a cut, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. The odds for May? A modest 28%.
“The Fed, it appears, has chosen the path of least excitement,” crypto trader Josh Rager informed his followers, referencing Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent speech. “Rate cuts? One might have better luck in May or June, but certainly not in March.”
“Steady as she goes, no cuts this FOMC meeting,” Rager summarized with a shrug.
Bitcoin’s price action, as if caught in a dance with no partner, waltzed between the buy and sell liquidity on exchange order books, with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) acting as a rather unyielding wall of resistance.
Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, pointed out that this trendline, usually a support in Bitcoin’s more exuberant moments, was now the most important level to reclaim.
“Bitcoin faces the 200-Day MA with all the enthusiasm of a debutante at her first ball,” he quipped, suggesting that a reclaim was not in the cards for the day, barring any unexpected governmental announcements.
Meanwhile, CoinGlass’s data revealed that key upside resistance was lurking just below $85,000, like a shadow at twilight.
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2025-03-13 17:38