As I strolled through the gardens of financial punditry, I chanced upon the musings of Jurrien Timmer, Fidelityâs esteemed director of global macro. His pronouncement? Bitcoinâs wallet count, that oft-touted barometer of success, has been as stagnant as a Russian winterâs night over the past year.
Timmer, with a dash of wit, attributed this lackluster performance to the grand entrances of US-based spot exchange-traded funds and MicroStrategyâs buying binge. âLarge buyers,â he quipped, âare akin to the aristocracy â a few, exquisite wallets suffice.â đ¤
The Fidelity executive, channeling the spirit of philosophical inquiry, posited that Bitcoinâs adoption trajectory aligns with the venerable S-curve cycles of exponential technologies. Furthermore, it dances to the tune of the power law model, where value swells with each new participant in the network â a veritable waltz of wallets, if you will.
And yet, Timmer lamented, tracking Bitcoinâs adoption curve has become as elusive as a Moscow ghost story. đľď¸ââď¸
A Cycle of Despair, or Merely a Siesta? đ´
Earlier, Chris Kuiper, Fidelityâs director of research for digital assets, dropped a bombshell as subtle as a Tolstoy novelâs plot twist: over the past four years, Bitcoin has barely outpaced the S&P 500, that stalwart of market indices.
The numbers, as stark as a Siberian landscape, reveal a mere 17% compound annual gain for Bitcoin, eclipsing the S&P 500âs 13% by a hairâs breadth. But, alas! Bitcoinâs risk-adjusted returns are as lackluster as a rainy St. Petersburg day. Investors endured four times the volatility for returns as underwhelming as a rejected loverâs sonnet.
âThis cycle,â Kuiper sighed, âhas underperformed its predecessors. Unless, of course, itâs merely an elongated waltzâŚâ đş
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2025-03-25 23:54