Oh dear, Bitcoin bulls, seems your golden calf has turned into a paper tiger! CryptoQuant’s top dog, Ki Young Ju, has news for you: retail’s already here, just not where you’re looking.
“The cycle’s not over just ’cause retail’s not onchain? Pish posh!” Ju barked in a March 19 X post.
He says those peering at retail through onchain goggles are seeing just half the picture.
“Retail’s slipping in through ETFs — the paper Bitcoin layer — invisible onchain,” Ju explained.
“This keeps the realized cap lower than if the funds were splashing into exchange deposit wallets,” he added, noting that a whopping 80% of spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETF flows are retail-driven — a trend Binance‘s brainy bunch spotted last October.
Back then, Binance’s boffins said most ETF buying was likely from retail investors swapping their digital piggy banks for funds with a regulatory safety net.
Ju was addressing naysayers who challenged his March 17 X prediction that the “Bitcoin bull cycle is over.”
“I’ve been cheering for bulls the past two years, even when signs were iffy. Hate to break it to you, but it’s bear time,” he declared.
Ju pointed out that certain signs are showing a liquidity drought, likely due to big, bad macro factors.
He clarified that when he said the bull cycle was kaput, he meant Bitcoin might need “6-12 months” to smash its all-time high, not that it’s about to belly-flop.
Traders often eye retail activity for signs of fatigue or a cue to sell when the market’s sizzling.
There are sentiment indicators, like the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, that gauge retail’s interest. It’s currently reading “Fear” at 31, down from yesterday’s “Neutral” 49. Ouch!
Other retail interest signals include Google search trends for “crypto” and app popularity. Remember when “crypto” searches hit 100 during Bitcoin’s $109,000 peak and Trump’s big day? Well, it’s since tanked by almost 62%.
As of now, the “crypto” search score’s a mere 38, with Bitcoin trading 22% below its January peak. Time to face the bear, folks!
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2025-03-21 07:30