📉 Fed Cuts Rates, Crypto Plummets – What a Surprise! 😏

by

Ah, the sweet symphony of economic farce! Once again, the illustrious Monsieur Jerome Powell, self-proclaimed puppet master of the dollar, flutters his fingers and lo! Markets tremble like cowards at a haunted abbey. Despite the Federal Reserve’s modest 25-basis-point rate reduction-bestowed upon us like divine alms-the great man declared that another cut in December is “far from certain.” 🎭

And so, in a twist worthy of the most tragicomic opera, the mighty Dollar Index (DXY) rose like a rooster crowing at dawn, reaching heights unseen since August-its feathers puffed, its beak agape, and its wings shielding the terrified peasantry of crypto investors. 💸

Enter the “Hawkish Cut” – A Masterclass in Contradiction 😲

On the noble date of October 29, BeInCrypto (which might as well be named BeInPropaganda) joyfully announced: “The Fed is lowering rates! Huzzah!” 🎉 “It will also end quantitative tightening in December!” The crypto masses rejoiced, thinking their digital gold would soon bathe in showers of sparks and fairy dust. Alas! The next morning brought not riches, but ruin.

Data (that most pedantic of philosophers) reveals the crypto market now down 2% like a drunkard losing his boots. Bitcoin, that proud stallion of speculation, has stumbled beneath $110,000. Ethereum, noble steed of smart contracts, has lost its rear beneath $4,000. Every coin in the Top 20 flees the battlefield like pages before an angry queen.

“On-chain metrics whisper of weakening institutional demand. The Coinbase Premium Gap hath turned negative-again-signaling that the Yanks are no longer buying. A golden opportunity? Nay. The large players, like cautious cats, stay far from the warm stove of hype. Only the retail fools cheered. As always,” sneered the analyst, puffing his pipe of cynicism.

Meanwhile, DXY ascended to 99.7, its highest since August 2025! Is it forming a double bottom? Could the dollar, that once-fallen colossus, awaken? The chartists debate, the algorithmists mutter incantations, and the traders-poor, deluded souls-ask, “Is this the reversal, or just another tease?” 😈

Is $DXY trying to reverse with a double bottom? #FX

– Aksel Kibar, CMT (@TechCharts) October 30, 2025

One would think lower rates-those sweet nectar-drops of monetary ease-would bring joy to risk assets. But alas! This is not a world of reason, but of theater. The dollar, inflated by Powell’s icy warnings, now stomps upon crypto like a giant upon termites.

The truth, hidden beneath the velvet cloak of headlines, is this: Powell doth protest too much. While cutting rates, he whispers, “Despair not too soon of another cut!”-for, he says, “There were strongly different views about December. Far from a foregone conclusion, I say!” 🗣️

“There were strongly different views about how to proceed in December. A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion, far from it,” he said-with the dramatic pause of a Shakespearean villain.

The markets, ever sensitive to tone, adjusted their wigs and lowered their bets. The CME FedWatch Tool, that oracle of odds, now gives but a 70.8% chance of a December cut-down from over 90%. Oh, the tragedy! How quickly hope fades when spoken to sternly.

“A ‘hawkish cut’ isn’t a paradox,” explaineth the sages, “’tis a strategy!” 🦅💸 As Milk Road Macro so elegantly put it: “When you cut rates but also squeeze hope like a lemon, you’ve achieved the delicate art of having your cake and eating it too-while denying others even a crumb.”

“A ‘hawkish cut’ isn’t a paradox, it’s a strategy. It’s when we see a rate cut but a dampening of expectations for future easing,” Milk Road Macro explained.

Recession Lurks, But the Fed Dances Anyway 💃

While the central bank plays its intricate dance of mixed messages, the real world staggers onward in economic woe. Behold! The Kobeissi Letter, that bard of despair, reports that 82% of Americans now reside in lands officially branded with the scarlet letter R-Recession. That, my friends, is more than during the dark years of 2008 or 2020, save only for those two.

“The percentage has DOUBLED since the start of 2025. Over the last 20 years, only 2008 and 2020 saw such a large share of the country in recession. Meanwhile, the latest Atlanta Fed estimate for real US GDP growth in Q3 2025 is +3.9%,” the post read-adding, no doubt, “And pigs shall fly.”

And what say the labor markets? Amanda Goodall, that Cassandra of unemployment, observes that long-term joblessness has climbed to 25.7%. That’s right: one in four unemployed Americans hath suffered beyond 27 weeks of fruitless searching. 🤕

“The last time this number breached 25%? 2009. A full year into the recession. Yes, that one. Is that clear enough on why I don’t believe the 4.35% unemployment rate?” Amanda Goodall stated-before being swiftly ignored by CNBC.

Thus, the Fed in its infinite wisdom attempts to balance upon a tightrope: easing today to soothe the masses, while warning tomorrow lest they become too joyful and spark inflation! A delicate act, performed above a pit of recession, watched by fools with bags full of memecoins.

Traders now sit, like nervous monks awaiting divine signs, for the next missive from the temple of the Fed. Growth, inflation, employment-the sacred trilogy-shall determine their fate. Until then, volatility reigns, ambiguity flourishes, and the people wonder: are we being guided… or simply gaslit with charts? 📊🤥

Read More

2025-10-31 08:14