As I strolled through the gardens of financial punditry, I chanced upon the musings of Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s esteemed director of global macro. His pronouncement? Bitcoin‘s wallet count, that oft-touted barometer of success, has been as stagnant as a Russian winter’s night over the past year.
Timmer, with a dash of wit, attributed this lackluster performance to the grand entrances of US-based spot exchange-traded funds and MicroStrategy’s buying binge. “Large buyers,” he quipped, “are akin to the aristocracy – a few, exquisite wallets suffice.” 🤑
The Fidelity executive, channeling the spirit of philosophical inquiry, posited that Bitcoin’s adoption trajectory aligns with the venerable S-curve cycles of exponential technologies. Furthermore, it dances to the tune of the power law model, where value swells with each new participant in the network – a veritable waltz of wallets, if you will.
And yet, Timmer lamented, tracking Bitcoin’s adoption curve has become as elusive as a Moscow ghost story. 🕵️♂️
A Cycle of Despair, or Merely a Siesta? 😴
Earlier, Chris Kuiper, Fidelity’s director of research for digital assets, dropped a bombshell as subtle as a Tolstoy novel’s plot twist: over the past four years, Bitcoin has barely outpaced the S&P 500, that stalwart of market indices.
The numbers, as stark as a Siberian landscape, reveal a mere 17% compound annual gain for Bitcoin, eclipsing the S&P 500’s 13% by a hair’s breadth. But, alas! Bitcoin’s risk-adjusted returns are as lackluster as a rainy St. Petersburg day. Investors endured four times the volatility for returns as underwhelming as a rejected lover’s sonnet.
“This cycle,” Kuiper sighed, “has underperformed its predecessors. Unless, of course, it’s merely an elongated waltz…” 🕺
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2025-03-25 23:54