As a seasoned crypto investor with over a decade of experience navigating market fluctuations and presidential elections, I find myself intrigued by the predictions unfolding for Bitcoin (BTC) ahead of the US election.
Ahead of the U.S. presidential election tomorrow, Bitcoin (BTC) is uncertain about its course as the competition between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris appears to be close based on recent polls.
Here’s what analysts are predicting for Bitcoin as the standoff between Trump and Harris approach.
Bitcoin could hit $80-90K if Trump wins
As a crypto enthusiast, I’m speculating that the price of Bitcoin could potentially soar to between $80,000 and $90,000 if Donald Trump were to win the upcoming election, based on the predictions of Bernstein analysts.
Trump’s endorsement of Bitcoin and digital currencies significantly contributes to their optimistic projections. During his campaign events, he openly expresses support for the U.S. taking the lead in the burgeoning cryptocurrency sector.
Key proposals include appointing a crypto-friendly SEC chair to ease regulatory pressures, establishing a national Bitcoin reserve to support BTC adoption, and making the US a hub for Bitcoin mining.
According to Bernstein’s optimistic outlook on Bitcoin, the digital currency could surpass its previous record highs following the upcoming U.S. presidential elections, especially if these events coincide with Bitcoin’s halving cycles that happen roughly every four years. This prediction is supported by a fractal analysis.
In 2012, right after the initial halving in November, the price of Bitcoin climbed from about $12 to an all-time peak of roughly $1,150 by the end of 2013. This marked a staggering increase of almost 9,500% over that period.
In a similar fashion, after the halving event in 2016, Bitcoin experienced another substantial surge. The cryptocurrency’s value climbed from approximately $650 in mid-2016 to roughly $20,000 by December 2017, representing more than a 3,000% growth compared to the period before the halving.
In the third round, events unfolded similarly. Following the halving in May 2020, Bitcoin’s value increased significantly, moving upwards from approximately $9,000 and peaking at a record high of $69,000 in November 2021.
As a researcher, I’ve observed that the recent completion of Bitcoin’s fourth halving in April 2024 might pave the way for another price surge, potentially reaching towards the estimated range of $80,000 to $90,000 proposed by Bernstein. With the US election scheduled for November 5th, these historical trends suggest an intriguing trajectory for Bitcoin’s value in the near future.
By October, it was forecasted that the value of Bitcoin would surge upwards to around $200,000 by the year 2025, irrespective of the results from the US elections.
Bitcoin will see “instant dump” on a Harris win
According to market analyst Miles Deutscher, it’s probable that Bitcoin could surge past $100,000 no matter who wins the U.S. presidential election. However, the route and timing might fluctuate depending on the election result.
He argues that Harris winning the US election will cause an “instant dump” in the Bitcoin market. That will likely happen due to market fears that Harris’s administration could maintain or even strengthen regulatory scrutiny on crypto.
The outlook aligns with growing Polymarket bids on a Bitcoin price crash in November.
For instance, the strongest bets are for a drop to $65,000, with a 75% implied probability for Bitcoin to reach the level, as indicated by the 76¢ price for “Yes” shares.
Bitcoin to $100K by November’s end?
Historically, dating back to 2013, November tends to be the most lucrative month for Bitcoin, averaging a 46% return. This trend has led analyst Lark Davis to speculate that we might see similar significant increases in November 2024.
He pointed out in his latest post that if Bitcoin experiences a 46% increase from its current price, it would reach approximately $104,000.
The Federal Reserve’s meeting scheduled for November 7th, which some predict could result in a small interest rate reduction of 25 basis points, might additionally stimulate Bitcoin’s growth prospects. This potential increase could potentially drive Bitcoin’s price upwards, even approaching Bernstein’s forecasted range of $80,000 to $90,000.
In simple terms, the traditionally robust increase in Bitcoin’s value during November, the potential reduction of interest rates by the Federal Reserve, and the positive stance towards cryptocurrencies associated with Donald Trump’s campaign could lead to a positive forecast for Bitcoin this month.
In the previous 24 hours, the price increased by approximately 0.25% and hit roughly $68,760 on November 4th. However, it was 7.35% lower than its recent peak of around $73,600, which was set only a week ago.
The decrease in Bitcoin‘s price coincides with a reduction of around $1.1 billion in the total number of outstanding futures contracts, which implies that numerous traders are lessening their involvement in these markets as they prepare for the November 5th election. This move has resulted in approximately $300 million worth of positions being liquidated.
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2024-11-04 21:52