3 reasons XRP might drop to $1.60 in March

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The XRP (XRP) daily chart has decided to grace us with the lowest candle close in 99 days on March 10, as though it were doing us all a favor by dropping below the $2 support level. But fear not, for it made a brief and rather underwhelming 12% recovery on March 11. The rollercoaster continues. 🎢

Now, on the high time frame (HTF) charts, our dear XRP must cling desperately to its psychological support level at $2. However, several indicators suggest that a far deeper plunge into the abyss might be looming. Oh joy. 😒

XRP markets lack buyers as futures flip bearish

XRP’s price has suffered a tragic 37.1% drop from its all-time high of $3.40. For a brief, fleeting moment on February 3, prices dipped by a similar percentage, and the market responded by absorbing the selling pressure, pushing XRP above $2.50. But that was so last season, darling. 🥴

In the here and now, however, XRP’s spot and perpetual markets have looked, well, less than enthusiastic. Data from aggr.trade reveals that XRP’s spot cumulative volume (CVD) has plummeted by a shocking 50% in March. And here we were, thinking things couldn’t get worse. 📉

A negative CVD, which might sound like some sort of dreadful medical condition, actually means there is more selling than buying. Currently sitting at a rather dismal -$408 million, it indicates that sellers are in control, and demand is doing its best impersonation of a ghost. 👻

Futures traders are also joining in on the despair, with perpetual CVD sinking to a sobering -1.18 billion on March 11. The open interest-weighted funding rate for XRP has also gone deeply negative, signifying an alarming rise in short positions. So much for optimism, huh? 🙄

XRP whales continue selling spree

Last week, XRP’s volume bubble map decided to make a spectacle of itself by surging toward the end of February. Ki-Young Ju, CryptoQuant’s founder, astutely noted that this uptick coincided with the ongoing distribution phase for XRP. This is, of course, when the big investors—also known as whales—start offloading their positions like a group of high-rolling gamblers cashing out after a disastrous night. 🎰

Ah, the classic distribution phase—when large investors subtly—and not so subtly—dump their holdings to secure gains, usually at the peak of a rally. How… transparent. 😏

Data shows that this selling spree has intensified in the last seven days, with whale outflows, measured as a 30-day moving average, steadily rising. They’re just packing up and leaving the party, folks. 🎉



Between March 4 and March 10, these colossal holders offloaded a staggering $838 million worth of XRP. It’s like watching a grand exodus, and I’m not sure anyone’s left to pick up the tab. 🏃‍♂️💸

XRP price H&S pattern hints at $1.60 retest

On March 11, XRP’s 1-day chart closed below $2.05, which is the critical neckline of the dreaded daily head-and-shoulders pattern. This formation, though not as cute as it sounds, often signals bearish outcomes when seen on a high time frame chart. It’s like being told your favorite band is breaking up—devastating, really. 🎶😭

If XRP can’t regain the $2.05 level as support, it’s like the economy is saying “good luck,” and lower prices seem inevitable. The immediate target zone for XRP’s price now lingers between the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement lines—also known as the “golden zone.” But, in the current mood of the market, it’s more like the “dreaded zone.” 🏴‍☠️

Now, the likelihood of XRP revisiting the 0.618 Fibonacci line or $1.60 is looking pretty high. But don’t worry, if it fails to hold that range, we might just see a rematch with the long-term demand zone between $1.58 and $1.27. What a reunion that will be! 💰

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2025-03-11 16:53