As a seasoned crypto analyst with years of experience under my belt, I find the current state of Bitcoin incredibly exciting. The 7-month sideways action we witnessed since March seemed like a brief pause before the next big leap. Now that Form3% is showing signs of overheating and BTC has reached an all-time high open interest, it feels like we’re on the verge of a full-blown rally.
Enthusiasm for the forthcoming U.S. elections, a surge in investments into actively traded Bitcoin ETFs, as well as certain technical and blockchain signals, point towards Bitcoin’s potential climb to fresh record prices.
A Trump win could send Bitcoin price to $100K
Bitcoin’s recent rally above $73,000 has been christened the “Trump trade” by some market commentators, as optimism surrounding a potential Trump presidency amounts among crypto enthusiasts.
In betting markets, the trend shows that former President Donald Trump is pulling ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris, who was previously vying for the presidency as a Republican.
Trump has been making efforts to win over the cryptocurrency sector, projecting an image of being pro-cryptocurrency, such as attending a Bitcoin conference in Nashville in July, and even pledging not to sell any Bitcoin owned by the U.S. government. He’s made several statements in this regard.
On the flip side, it’s uncertain how firm Harris’ position on cryptocurrency is, although some speculate that her approach might be more lenient compared to Joe Biden’s.
As of publication, Trump appeared to have a strong likelihood of victory in the November 5th presidential election against Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, with approximately a 67% chance according to data from Polymarket. Nevertheless, survey results suggest a tightly contested race, leaving the final outcome uncertain and difficult to predict.
A possible Trump victory is stirring optimism in the market. According to Teen Bitcoin millionaire Erik Finman, a Trump election win would turn the US into a pro-crypto environment, leading to a significant influx of investment in the crypto markets.
“His policies will ignite the crypto market, fueling massive growth across the board, Finman added.
“If Trump wins, I believe Bitcoin could hit $100,000 during his second term.”
As a crypto investor, I find myself aligning with Tony Sycamore’s perspective from IG Australia Pty Ltd. He suggests that Bitcoin’s upward trend mirrors an optimistic outlook for Trump. To maintain this positive momentum and instill confidence in a rally that might surpass March’s record of $73,794, it is crucial for Bitcoin to consistently hold its value above the $70,000 mark.
BTC price has rallied almost 15% in October, inspiring some confidence in the “Uptober” narrative.
Big spot Bitcoin ETF inflows return
The Bitcoin ETFs are experiencing significant financial influx, as evidenced by Farside Investors’ data, which reveals that approximately $23.3 billion has been invested in them since their launch on January 11.
As a researcher, I’ve observed an interesting trend in the ETF market: While Grayscale’s GBTC is still experiencing withdrawals, this outflow is significantly counterbalanced by investments pouring into other ETFs, such as BlackRock’s IBIT. In fact, IBIT recorded a staggering $642.9 million in inflows on a single day, marking the largest trading day in the past six months for this particular ETF.
This week has seen an increased appetite for Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), with a collective investment of approximately $2.1 billion in the past five days. On October 30th, over $870 million was invested specifically into spot Bitcoin ETFs.
As an analyst, I’ve observed a significant surge in inflows for cryptocurrency ETFs, marking the highest such influx since March, as reported by Ecoinometrics in their October 29th post.
Ecoinometrics’ analysts added,
“If you are looking for a reason why Bitcoin could push higher, this is it.”
Bitcoin short-term holder SOPR flips bullish
Over the past period, when Bitcoin surpassed $70,000, approximately 94% of the total supply became profitable – a significant increase. However, contrary to expectations, the data from CryptoQuant shows that this hasn’t sparked intense selling activity or profit-taking.
According to a market analysis by the firm, the Short-Term Holder’s Spent Output Profit Ratio shows that while these investors have turned a profit, they are not currently exhibiting signs of excessive activity or overzealousness.
SOPR, or Spent Output Profit Ratio, measures if Short-Term Holders (STHs) are currently in profit or loss relative to the initial price at which they bought Bitcoin.
A value greater than 1 suggests a majority of the invested coins are yielding substantial returns from their brief investments, while a value less than 1 implies a significant number of those coins are experiencing losses.
According to CryptoQuant, the current value of the indicator stands at 1.017%, indicating that Stakers (STHs) are cashing out some earnings but have not yet reached a point of excessive growth or overheating.
During the seven-month period of stable Bitcoin pricing since March, a SOPR value of 1.03% was deemed as indicating “overheating” by the company, implying that Bitcoin may still have potential to increase in value further before reaching this threshold.
“If the price of Bitcoin surpasses the point high and the short-term holder SOPR value continues to spike, we could see the start of a full-blown rally. “
Record-high Bitcoin IO reaffirms uptrend
According to CoinGlass data, the Bitcoin futures open interest reached a record peak on October 29, coinciding with Bitcoin’s price surpassing $73,000 for the first time since March.
The open interest for Bitcoin futures saw its largest single-day increase since June 3, surging beyond 20,000 BTC, equivalent to approximately $2.5 billion at present rates, and approaching a staggering 600,000 BTC, or an impressive $41 billion, as demonstrated in the graph below.
Open Interest signifies the overall count of unsettled derivative agreements still active in the market.
A high Open Interest (OI) in Bitcoin implies increased investor enthusiasm towards it. As both the OI and Bitcoin’s price rise together, it signals fresh capital flowing into the market due to growing demand, suggesting a strengthening tendency or upward trend.
According to a recent post on X by CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno, if the current demand trend persists, Bitcoin might aim for a price of around $84,000.
“Bitcoin is near a fresh ATH. From a valuation perspective, $84K would be the next target (the “upper” band).”
Bitcoin technicals show breakout underway
According to data from CryptoMoon Markets Pro and TradingView, Bitcoin’s price climbed nearly $200 away from its record high on October 29, jumping up to $73,600 following the Wall Street opening, representing a 5.6% increase. However, it has since slightly retreated to its current prices.
It’s worth noting that the movement of Bitcoin’s value has shaped a circular base chart pattern on the daily graph (refer to the image below). The upward momentum on October 29 managed to propel the price beyond the chart pattern’s neckline at $71,700, indicating potential buying interest.
As a crypto investor, if the daily candlestick manages to close above the current level, it will signify a bullish breakout emerging from the rounded bottom formation. This would propel Bitcoin into an exciting phase of price discovery, with the technical objective set at approximately $91,362 – a 27% surge from the present price.
In simpler terms, the Daily Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) is nearly in the zone that suggests the market is overbought, sitting at 67, which supports the bulls’ control. However, it hasn’t yet crossed the 70 mark, which is when an asset is considered truly overbought.
Additionally, the exponential moving averages (EMAs) have recently formed a “golden cross” on the daily chart. This occurred around early January when the 50-day EMA (represented by the yellow line) rose above the 200-day EMA (depicted in purple). Since then, the BTC/USD pair has seen approximately 60% growth.
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2024-10-30 16:55