Key Takeaways
- XRP fell to $1.29, breaking below the 50 SMA at $1.3345 on heavy volume.
- RSI at 34.99 – approaching oversold, no reversal signal forming yet.
- $592.3M in XRP withdrawn from Binance and Coinbase.
- 30-day liquidity index at 0.062 – one of the lowest levels ever recorded on Binance.
- 30-day turnover at $4.46B versus historical peaks above 200B.
As of right now, XRP is trading around $1.29, which is a significant drop from the recent high of $1.37 we saw just a few days ago. Looking at the hourly chart, it’s currently below its 50-period moving average, sitting at $1.3345. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 35 and still trending downwards, indicating weakening momentum. I believe the market reacted negatively to President Trump’s recent address regarding Iran, and we saw a broader sell-off across the crypto market. XRP was pulled down with it, losing over 5% from its April 1st high and breaking a support level that had held for six days.
The price is currently holding above a potential low point, with key support around $1.28 – a level where the price previously stabilized. If that level fails, the next significant support area is around $1.20. The 50-day Simple Moving Average is now acting as resistance, and the price needs to break back above this level to suggest a genuine recovery is possible.
The Whale Story: From Selling to Withdrawing
Right now, what matters most in the XRP market isn’t the price itself, but how large XRP holders – known as whales – have been changing their actions over the last couple of weeks. Their behavior reveals information that the price charts alone don’t show.
Data from CryptoQuant shows large XRP holders (whales) sent a peak of around 44,000 XRP to the Binance exchange in mid-March. This happened during the week the price of XRP hit $1.55.
There’s a clear connection: when large XRP holders transferred their coins to exchanges, it increased the available supply for sale, and the price immediately showed that increased selling pressure. However, after March 26th, these transfers stopped. By April 1st, the daily amount had fallen to around 3,000, effectively removing almost all of the selling pressure that had been present for the previous two weeks.
Recent large withdrawals of XRP add another layer to the situation. In late March, major holders quickly removed 442 million XRP (valued at $592.3 million) from the Binance and Coinbase exchanges.
Looking at XRP transactions, on March 27th, Binance sent out $113.9 million worth of XRP, and Coinbase sent out $184.9 million, totaling $298.8 million for the day. Then, on March 30th, Binance added $65.7 million in XRP, while Coinbase sent out $227.8 million, bringing the daily total to $293.5 million. These two days combined saw $592.3 million in XRP movement. The only time there was a comparable surge was on February 6th, when $530 million XRP was moved in a single day – still the largest single-day spike ever recorded.
As a crypto investor, I’ve been watching the XRP outflows closely. For most of March, we saw around 50 million XRP leaving exchanges each day. But towards the end of the month, that number spiked – it was almost six times higher! This is significant because when XRP leaves an exchange, it’s taken off the market temporarily. Especially when large holders – the ‘whales’ – move their XRP to their own wallets, it reduces the immediate selling pressure, even if the price hasn’t fully reflected that yet. It’s a good sign, suggesting less XRP is readily available to be sold, which could eventually support the price.
The Liquidity Problem and What It Means for the Next Move
Beyond Donald Trump’s warning that the US will strike Iran “extremely hard,” there was another key factor driving the steep market decline on April 2nd. This same factor suggests that any future market movement, whether up or down, will be sudden rather than a slow, steady change.
According to CryptoQuant, XRP’s trading activity on Binance has significantly decreased. Its 30-day liquidity index is now around 0.062, a very low level compared to its high of over 3.2 in mid-2025. Trading volume over the past 30 days is $4.46 billion, far below its peak of over $200 billion. Currently, there aren’t many buy or sell orders available, meaning the market can’t easily handle large trades without significant price changes.
Currently, even small buy or sell orders can cause significant price swings for XRP. This explains how quickly the price fell below key support levels on April 2nd – it happened in hours, not days. Similarly, when buying picks up again, we shouldn’t expect a slow, steady increase; the price will likely jump suddenly. Low trading volume isn’t necessarily a sign of a price drop or increase on its own. Instead, it *magnifies* whatever direction the price moves, and right now, that effect is extremely strong.
Two Outcomes From Here
If sellers keep driving the price down, there’s little standing in the way of further losses. The 50-day Simple Moving Average at $1.3345 is now acting as a ceiling. While the Relative Strength Index is at 35, it hasn’t yet indicated the extreme selling often seen at the lowest points of previous XRP price cycles. Immediate support lies at $1.28; if the price closes below that level, it could fall to $1.20 and potentially even lower, testing the overall support level.
While technical analysis can offer insights, it’s important to remember charts can’t predict *when* price changes will happen. Over the last month, most significant price fluctuations in the crypto market haven’t been caused by typical trading patterns or blockchain data. Instead, they’ve been primarily influenced by news related to the conflict involving Iran.
News of a ceasefire briefly boosted XRP’s price on March 31, turning a previous support level into a resistance. However, a speech by Trump quickly reversed that progress. While technical analysis and large investor activity suggest a potential rebound, current market conditions mean that news events, not charts, will ultimately drive the next price move, and predicting those events is impossible.
Recent data shows that large investors (whales) have almost completely stopped sending XRP to exchanges, which eliminates the heavy selling that occurred in mid-March. Over the past week, $592 million in XRP has been withdrawn from exchanges, meaning there’s very little XRP readily available for sale – the lowest amount since February. Currently, with very low liquidity, even a small increase in buying – perhaps triggered by changes in the war situation – could cause a significant price increase, much more so than usual.
Whale activity suggests they are buying, while the price chart indicates selling. Regardless of which trend prevails, the liquidity index shows any significant price change will happen quickly.
This article is for informational purposes only and shouldn’t be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com doesn’t support or suggest any particular investment or cryptocurrency. Always do your own research and talk to a qualified financial advisor before investing.
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2026-04-02 19:07