As someone who has been around the crypto world for quite some time now, I must say that this latest surge in Bitcoin’s price is truly exhilarating. It reminds me of the days back in 2017 when the entire crypto market seemed to be on fire. However, unlike then, I find myself a bit more cautious and skeptical about these sudden price spikes.
This week started with Bitcoin (BTC) reaching new heights, as its price surge over the weekend brought it close to $82,000.
- Bitcoin traders see BTC price upside continuing despite some concerns that a retracement may reach frightening proportions.
- Macroeconomic data releases continue to come thick and fast as United States Presidential Election fever gives way to the ongoing inflation narrative.
- After months of frustration, Bitcoin traders are finally seeing BTC/USD catch up with gold.
- BTC price gains may be impressive, but in percentage terms, there is still a long way to go before November 2024 matches historical average gains.
- Mainstream interest is picking up, but just like in Bitcoin’s last halving year, all-time highs have not opened the floodgates to mass retail inflows — yet.
Bitcoin traders diverge over future BTC price trend
As Bitcoin approaches $82,000, it’s kicking off the week with vigor, with the process of determining its market value (price discovery) now in full swing.
According to data from CryptoMoon Markets Pro and TradingView, the price of Bitcoin reached a new peak of $81,888 on Bitstamp following the end of the weekly trading period.
The price reached an all-time high for Bitcoin, surpassing $80,000 following a series of significant increases over the weekend.
As a crypto investor, I find myself buoyed by an underlying optimism, even amidst whispers of potential market corrections. The general vibe among fellow traders still seems to favor a bullish outlook.
Active selling is still observed near the price point of $81,500 according to a recent post by popular trader Skew. Meanwhile, alternative cryptocurrencies are not showing much buying momentum at present.
Skew suggested that the start of the TradFi trading week in Europe and the United States would further bulls’ cause, potentially validating the “out-of-hours” weekend jump to new highs.
He noted that bids are climbing once more, yet they seem to be missing the trading volume and strength seen in past upward trends, regarding the liquidity on the exchange’s order book.
“Probably coiling into EU/US hours.”
From a long-term standpoint, there’s optimism for further significant growth. Investors are pointing out that the recent seven-month period of stability on Bitcoin’s price against the U.S. dollar comes following Bitcoin’s previous record high in March.
According to experienced trader Peter Brandt, Bitcoin presents an opportunity for people to purchase breaks during the period between March and October 2024.
“When BTC decides to ‘Mark-Up,’ it never looks back.”
Brandt predicts that the value of Bitcoin could reach $125,000 by the end of this year. Earlier, he had suggested that this price might not be reached until Q3 of 2025, when it could potentially rise to $130,000.
During the weekly closing, the conditions were met for Bitcoin to transition into the “explosive growth phase” or “extended upward trend” of its current price surge.
CPI week takes over from US Election fever
In the upcoming days, a significant amount of U.S. economic data may keep investors in risky assets alert, as the Federal Reserve could introduce subtle changes to their anticipated monetary policies.
The crucial occurrences involve the publication of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) in October, which are essential indicators for measuring inflation rates.
At the moment, the Federal Reserve is dealing with conflicting indicators regarding the fight against inflation in the U.S., and they reduced interest rates by 0.25% recently due to sluggish job market conditions.
On November 14th, additional information about unemployment claims, Producer Price Index (PPI), and a talk from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell regarding the overall economic perspective will be released.
The Kobeissi Letter predicts that financial markets will keep evaluating corporate earnings, the results of the upcoming election, and the Federal Reserve’s meeting during an expected bustling week.
According to the most recent information from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, it appears that there will be a decrease of 0.25% during the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting scheduled for December 18.
As a researcher, I’d express it as follows: “Currently, my observations indicate that investor confidence and willingness to take risks are exceptionally high compared to historical norms.
“As we head into 2025, it’s clear that the economy is slowing and fiscal policy is uncertain.”
It added that despite the S&P 500 notching its own record highs of 6,000 points last week, such strong performance is “never sustainable,” pointing to year-to-date gains of nearly 50%.
Bitcoin brings back gold competition
Experienced crypto market veterans are observing Bitcoin as it strives to match the performance of gold, rather than equities (stocks).
The price of gold (represented by XAU/USD) started increasing ahead of Bitcoin, whereas the price of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) remained below its past record highs from March.
On November 11th, Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Investments (a quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund), observed that the bulls are quickly restoring equilibrium. This means that he noticed the bullish sentiments gaining strength again in the market.
“Here we go. Shared this chart a few times – Bitcoin lags Gold a few months,” he told followers.
“When the breakout happens, expect rapid repricing.”
Anticipation is growing as a significant milestone in Bitcoin institutional investment coincides with a surge in its market price. Last week, the amount invested in BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) exceeded that put into its gold ETF.
As commentators noted, the gold ETF has been on the market around twenty years longer.
Over the past week, financial company QCP Capital proposed an idea where the accumulation of Bitcoin ETF investments and the Bitcoin market’s own price trend might trigger a chain reaction, much like a snowball rolling downhill.
Maintaining this optimistic stance towards Bitcoin might generate a self-reinforcing cycle. As ETF investments increase due to rising prices, they could further boost the value of BTC. This growth may draw in more individual investors and systematic funds as market volatility decreases.
A November like any other?
At around 16%, Bitcoin’s month-to-date performance in November 2024 is nothing out of the ordinary.
Though it has consistently set new record highs during the month, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) still needs to achieve more to make November 2021 extraordinary compared to previous months.
Information gathered from the monitoring system, CoinGlass, provides a clearer understanding of the circumstances – like November 2020, the previous halving year, experienced an increase of approximately 43% in Bitcoin’s value.
2017 saw Bitcoin reach its peak in November, resulting in a 53% increase that month. Conversely, 2013 stands out with astounding returns of approximately 450%. Since then, Bitcoin’s worst performance in November was recorded in 2018, where it experienced a significant decline of nearly 37%.
Due to these significant differences, the typical November gains are approximately 43%. This has left optimistic investors expecting further growth before the month concludes.
According to the analysis of well-known trader Mikybull Crypto, using Fibonacci retracement levels, the next significant level for Bitcoin (BTC) could be around $93k before it experiences a pullback and a period of consolidation. Following this potential pullback and consolidation, he predicts that BTC might reach $121k to complete wave 5.
Various analysts are frequently predicting that Bitcoin will reach prices in the hundreds of thousands by the year 2025, with some suggesting this significant milestone could happen as early as the first quarter of that year. According to CryptoMoon’s report, this is one of the most commonly suggested timelines for this historic event.
Crypto educator Karan Singh Arora described $100,000 as “inevitable” by the end of the year.
“$100k $BTC is less than $20k away,” fellow trader Johnny noted.
“Kinda crazy how far we’ve come.”
Mainstream mood echoes 2020 BTC price breakout
Regarding widespread public enthusiasm for Bitcoin among everyday consumers, beyond institutional investors, it appears that interest is still noticeably lacking.
Based on recent data from Google Trends, it appears that consumer interest in Bitcoin’s price movement is starting to pick up, much like in 2020.
“Recent spike up but still early,” popular analytics account Bitcoindata21 summarized on X.
“For comparison December 2020 (price discovery above $20k) closed at 35, so quite similar.”
Earlier, CryptoMoon discussed various indicators to identify Bitcoin’s bull market peaks based on general public involvement. To date, none have exhibited the characteristics of a typical “blow-off top”.
On Apple’s AppStore, the popularity of Coinbase’s trading app is still significantly lower than the top-ranked app.
Now, we’re seeing an upward trend, similar to Robinhood. Let’s see if this momentum continues. According to Bitcoindata21, the app hit the top spot in December 2017, April 2021, and November 2021.
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2024-11-11 11:42