A Few Things You Should Probably Know:
- Apparently, people are betting that Donald Trump won’t be able to boss the Federal Reserve around. Only a 10% chance of Jerome Powell getting the boot by 2025. A mere decimal.
- Trump’s attempting to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook over some old mortgage business. She’s politely pointing out that “just because he *wants* to” isn’t a valid reason.
- Presidents have tried this sort of thing before-it’s a time-honored tradition, really-but the markets are shrugging. Even Bitcoin isn’t terribly bothered! 🤷♂️
More Things To Ponder:
BTCBTC$110,214.62◢1.54%
Now, the clever money-or at least the money on Polymarket-suggests that Mr. Trump’s attempts to influence the Federal Reserve are about as likely to succeed as a penguin negotiating world peace. Investors aren’t particularly convinced he can wrestle control of monetary policy before Mr. Powell’s term gently expires in May 2026. Which, one suspects, is just how the Fed likes it.
The current kerfuffle involves Fed Governor Lisa Cook, whom Trump wishes to remove due to allegations related to a mortgage. A letter was duly posted on Truth Social, because where else? It would make her the first governor to face such a presidential dismissal-a historical first, and frankly, a bit dramatic. 🎭
Ms. Cook, however, is not taking this lying down. She’s pointed out, rather reasonably, that being fired “for cause” means, well, *cause* – something to do with official misconduct, not a spot of bother with a prior mortgage. It’s a subtle distinction, but apparently, quite important.
Markets are giving Ms. Cook a 27% chance of being ousted by the year’s end. This suggests some potential legal squabbling, but largely the expectation is that she’ll survive the attempt. One imagines she’s already sharpened her quill.
Of course, this isn’t exactly unprecedented. Presidents throughout history have attempted to… *encourage* the Fed to see things their way. The Cato Institute, in a remarkably sensible piece, pointed out that it happens more often than polite society admits.
Harry Truman had a chairman replaced, Lyndon Johnson reportedly had a strongly worded conversation with his, and Richard Nixon “persuaded” another with the subtlety of an elephant in a china shop. It all ended rather predictably, with runaway inflation. History, as they say, rhymes. 📜
A 2013 study suggested the “independence” of the Federal Reserve is, shall we say, a convenient fiction. Both parties, it appears, are quite happy to interfere when it suits them.
If Mr. Trump *did* somehow manage to remove Mr. Powell, the markets might well cheer, provided it promised looser monetary policies. A Fed more amenable to the White House could cut rates faster, devalue the dollar, and generally create a lovely little upturn for…well, everything. Including Bitcoin, naturally.
Because, the argument goes, if fiat currency is just a political football, then a currency *not* controlled by politicians sounds rather appealing. Makes you think, doesn’t it? 💰
So, a changing of the guard, you see, would be a good thing for Bitcoin. Which is precisely why the market barely blinked at Mr. Trump’s actions concerning Ms. Cook. The consensus appears to be that it’s mostly just bluster.
Bitcoin barely twitched, managing a 0.3% increase. The CoinDesk 20 index, meanwhile, is down a smidge, but honestly, it’s probably just having a bad day. These things happen.
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2025-08-26 09:05