Bitcoin Bulls Charge at $112K While Gold Shines – But Can This Party Last? 🦌💸

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At Tuesday’s Wall Street open, Bitcoin, that digital gremlin, surged nearly 2% on the day, hitting $111,775 on Bitstamp. The move mirrored gold’s breakout, which was triggered by last Friday’s U.S. macro data. Together, BTC and XAU punished short-sellers: CoinGlass data shows crypto traders lost around $60 million in liquidations within four hours. *

The $100K Elephant in the Room

Despite the pump, bearish signals linger like a bad smell in a wizard’s hat. Rekt Capital described the moment as “critical,” highlighting heavy bearish candles and warning that BTC could slip out of its uptrend channel. Others are more bearish again with a view that $112K has now become resistance and that a $100K retest looks inevitable “in the coming days.”

The harsher view: if $100,000 falls, the current bull market could be over. That’s the uncomfortable truth hovering over every candle right now, like a dragon guarding a hoard of regrets.

September: Bitcoin’s Bogey Month

September is historically terrible for Bitcoin. Since 2013, BTC has averaged a 3.5% loss in September, and week three has been a near-guaranteed red zone. If history rhymes, this rally could be a bull trap dressed in gold’s glitter-like a goblin wearing a crown.

Bitcoin Seasonality is not great for September. 

On-Chain Signals Split the Crowd

Still, not everything screams doom. Glassnode data shows Bitcoin’s Cost Basis Distribution clustering tightly around current price levels-a sign of strong spot-market conviction, especially compared to Ethereum’s weaker flows. That density often provides real support versus the froth of futures-driven moves, like a wizard’s spellbook versus a toddler’s crayon art.

Exchange flows add intrigue. Coinbase just recorded netflow spikes from Aug. 25-31 after hitting its lowest 30-day SMA since early 2023. Meanwhile, Binance saw netflow highs in late July and late August-both levels historically tied to reaccumulation. In other words, smart money may be quietly shifting reserves in preparation for upside, like librarians organizing dusty tomes for a surprise quiz.

Long-term holders are taking some profits, but activity is modest compared to past peaks-measured distribution, not panic selling. It’s like a tea party where everyone sips politely and no one knocks over the teapot.

The Line in the Sand: $113,650

Technically, the battle is clear. Bitcoin must decisively close above $113,650 to confirm a bullish break and erase the descending trendline. That would open the door to $116,300, $117,500, and maybe even $119,500. But if the breakout fails, downside targets remain brutal: the $105,000-$100,000 order block. It’s a cosmic speed bump with a ticket to either Valhalla or the discount dungeon.

Contrarian Take: Gold Is the Tell

Here’s the twist: Bitcoin isn’t leading this rally-gold is. And gold’s new highs reflect investor panic about fiat debasement and shaky macro policy. If gold keeps ripping, Bitcoin can ride the sympathy wave. But if gold stalls, Bitcoin could be left standing at $112K with no chair when the music stops.

So, is this Bitcoin showing strength, or just acting like “gold with more beta”? The next few candles-and gold’s ability to hold above $3,500-will decide. Or perhaps the market will throw up its hands and say, “Why not both?”

 

*

Short-sellers: wizards who misjudged the timing of their spells.

Bearish candles: the market’s way of saying “not today, Satan” with a side of despair.

September: Bitcoin’s personal haunted house.

Smart money: the financial equivalent of a cat who always knows where the treats are.

Gold: the original store of value, now with 100% less magic and 1000% more glitter. ✨

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2025-09-02 22:15