Bitcoin’s Unlikely September Surge: Is $170K Next? You Won’t Believe This!

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Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin, that capricious creature, is steering towards a September close with a 4.50% gain – a herald, if history is kind, of a robust Q4 romp.

  • Onchain data reveals that US investors have awoken from their slumber, flexing their spot demand muscles.

Bitcoin (BTC), much like a prodigal son returning to favour, is on track to end September with a respectable 4.50% gain, flirting with the £113,100 mark as the month expires. In the grand theatre of markets, a verdant September usually authorises an enthusiastic Q4 encore, bestowing upon the fortunate gains fit for an aristocrat’s ledger.

Bitcoin chart

The annals of Bitcoin lore tell us that September greenness in 2015, 2016, 2023, and now 2024, ushered in Q4 returns over 53% on average. October plays the role of the exuberant debutante, strutting about with a 21.8% average return, November brings a modest 10.8%, while December is the wallflower, bearing a 3.2% limp. One might say October is the champagne toast; December, the inevitable morning after.

Should this fickle dame repeat her dance, BTC might well be donning a $170,000 frock by year’s end – a figure that prods one’s sense of propriety and disbelief in equal measures.

Seasonality chart

Seasonality data, that quaint oracle, declares October traditionally the springboard, with gains extending ambitiously into November and occasionally December. Post-halving years seem to charm Bitcoin into fresh escapades of price discovery, like a debutante newly arrived and utterly determined to leave an impression.

CryptoMoon, who one suspects has a telescope finely tuned to Bitcoin’s whims, delivers the wisdom of Timothy Peterson, Bitcoin network economist and part-time soothsayer. He observes:

“This year, it is almost certain to be positive based on history and developing market conditions. However, most of the time, the big gains don’t start until about the third week.”

One can practically hear the market’s trumpets sounding, though with due cynicism: past triumphs hardly guarantee future ballets. Yet, with Bitcoin perched above $110,000 like an overambitious pheasant, the final quarter promises as much drama and potential as a scandal at a country club.

BTC spot activity indicators turn bullish

Onchain metrics, those numerical divinations of market mood, have decided to join the bullish choir. The Spot Taker CVD nodded green this Monday, its first such gesture since mid-July. This little critter tracks the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, tipping its hat to the buyers with a positive sign – a phase where market appetites lean towards acquisition rather than liquidation.

Spot Taker CVD indicator

Meanwhile, the Coinbase premium index reports a flurry of accumulation by our transatlantic friends, with clusters of verdant activity throughout Q3 – conspicuous inkblots on an otherwise beige parchment, signaling much excitement. The duet of Coinbase premium and Spot Taker CVD embark on an agreeable waltz, reinforcing the notion that Bitcoin’s flirtation with fortune is far from a mere dalliance.

Coinbase premium index chart

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2025-09-30 21:11