Michael Saylor’s Crypto Gamble Loses $18B-But Can It Bounce Back? 🤯

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Markets

What to know:

  • Bitcoin treasury firm Strategy (MSTR) has slumped 40% since July, but a potential rebound nears with upcoming catalysts, 10x Research’s Markus Thielen said. (Spoiler: He was wrong before.)
  • Thielen expects the company to report a third quarter $3.6 billion profit from BTC mark-to-market gains, reviving speculation about S&P 500 inclusion. (Or, as I call it, “the lottery of institutional money.”)
  • Inclusion in the index could mean $28 billion of buying pressure on the stock, said Thielen. (Imagine that, but replace “buying pressure” with “a financial firehose.”)

MicroStrategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of bitcoin and long seen as a leveraged bet on the crypto, has shed nearly $18 billion in market value as enthusiasm dried up and its net asset value (mNAV) premium collapsed in recent months. If this were a shopping cart full of melons, you’d be picking up the pieces at the curb.

The stock may be poised for a rebound as a series of key catalysts could reverse the bearish trend as soon as this week, according to a fresh report by 10x Research’s Markus Thielen, who previously had been bearish on the name. (He’s like a weatherman who predicted snow in Miami-twice.)

“At today’s price, with the NAV premium largely gone, volatility trending higher, and a potential catalyst in the form of strong Q3 earnings and renewed S&P 500 inclusion speculation, we see Strategy as attractive at current levels,” Thielen wrote, noting that the stock here could offer better value than bitcoin itself. (Translation: “Buy low, cry less.”)

The stock’s slump to below $280 (down another 1.8% on Wednesday) has left the market cap sitting at barely above the value of the bitcoin on the company balance sheet. That marks a sharp reversal from late 2024, when speculative premiums, said Thielen, which pushed the stock far above its fundamentals. (Think of it as a soufflé that deflated faster than my hopes for 2020.)

While the 40% decline since July left has sentiment “washed out” and retail interest low, the firm’s Thursday earnings report could mark a pivot, said Thielen. (Or, as my dog does every morning: fake dead, then bark at the mailman.)

He expects the firm to report a roughly $3.6 billion profit from mark-to-market gains on its BTC holdings. The profit could reset speculation for a potential S&P 500 index inclusion decision in December-a move in which Thielen has now assigned a 60-70% probability. (That’s like saying there’s a 60% chance your ex will text you “I miss you” after seeing you with someone taller.)

Including the stock in one of the most important equity indexes in the world could drive up to $28 billion in passive and active fund flows, setting up MSTR for a similar rally seen in Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD) following their inclusions into the S&P 500. (Or, as I prefer to call it: “The Index Lottery: Now With More Hype!”)

“Capitulation always feels like the end – until it quietly marks the beginning,” Thielen said. (Or until it doesn’t. Nobody ever got fired for betting on a comeback… until they did.)

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2025-10-29 19:43