Bitcoin’s Wild Ride: 60% Rebound or Crash? 🤡💸

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So, Bitcoin‘s gonna moon again, huh? 🌕🚀 Another 60% rally in 180 days? Sure, why not. But let’s not forget the ETF inflows are fading faster than my interest in a second season of Curb Your Enthusiasm (wait, that’s never happened). And the Fed? Oh, they’re just sitting there, sipping their tea, signaling “limited cuts.” Limited cuts? More like limited excitement. 😴

  • Apparently, Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycles are so 2023. Now it’s all about the “cost-basis returns cycle.” 🧮 Three times now, BTC breaks ATHs, dumps to ETF cost basis, then rallies 60%+ in ~180 days. Groundhog Day, anyone? 🐹
  • But hey, spot ETF inflows are fading, the Fed’s being stingy, and the BoJ might hike rates. So, BTC could drop to $80k or even $75k. Big deal. It’s not like anyone’s retirement is on the line. 🙄
  • And let’s not forget Strategy (aka MicroStrategy, but who’s keeping track?). They’ve got 3% of BTC supply, funded by debt. Debt! Because nothing says “sound investment” like borrowing to buy volatile assets. If their mNAV drops below 1, they’ll be selling into weakness. Great plan, guys. 👏

So, Bitcoin’s gonna rebound, they say. Within 180 days. Because why not? It’s not like the market’s predictable or anything. 🤷‍♂️

Over the past day, BTCUSDT traded between $87.6k and $90.3k. Thrilling, right? A whole 3% move. My heart’s racing. 💤

Copper’s calling it the “cost-basis returns cycle.” Because ETFs changed everything. Except, you know, the fact that Bitcoin’s still a rollercoaster. 🎢

Analysts? More like Astrologists 🌟🔮

Copper’s report says Bitcoin’s got this repeatable pattern: breaks ATHs, corrects sharply, then finds support at ETF cost basis. Three times now. It’s like clockwork. Or a broken record. 🎶

Why a Quiet Bitcoin Market Can Be Dangerous: What IFP Is Signaling Now

“Historically, periods when IFP turned red were not defined by orderly trends but by sharp corrections and sudden price swings.” – By @xwinfinance 😱

– CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) December 15, 2025

Each cycle delivers 60%+ returns. But hey, institutions are just rebalancing their portfolios. Because nothing says “hodl” like selling when things get spicy. 🌶️

“Institutions don’t care about sats,” they say. No kidding. They care about risk-adjusted returns. Shocking. 🤯

$BTC reacted to the key level at $87,771, where new buyers stepped in and pushed price back into the rising wedge pattern. Ideally, price should hold support above the last swing low. Or not. Who cares? 🤷‍♂️

– Man of Bitcoin (@Manofbitcoin) December 15, 2025

Financial advisors recommend 2-5% Bitcoin allocation. But without rebalancing, that can drift to 6.2% or more in 180 days. Oops. 😬

Fadi Aboualfa from Copper says Bitcoin’s trading near its ETF cost basis, so it’s gotta go up. Because patterns never fail. Right? 🙃

Other analysts say there are no catalysts. The Fed’s 0.25% cut was priced in. One cut in 2026? Yawn. 😴

ETF inflows are down in December. BlackRock and Fidelity hold a big chunk of BTC. Outflows? No biggie. Unless they are. 🤷‍♂️

Strategy’s got 660,625 bitcoins, funded by debt. If their mNAV drops below 1, they sell. Great plan. What could go wrong? 🤡

Their average entry price is up, so their buffer’s shrinking. Amberdata says the “margin of safety” is compressed. Sounds cozy. 🛏️

“Early money is patient, late money is nervous.” Shocking. Who knew? 🙄

A decline below support levels could change investor psychology. Or not. Who knows? 🤷‍♂️

BTC’s 2025 YTD return is 30-35%. Strong? Sure. But compared to gold and equities? Meh. 🥱

Trading perspective? Classic range action. Liquidity’s decent, volatility’s tradable. Between $80k and $100k. Thrilling. 🥱

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2025-12-15 14:29