Avatar: Fire and Ash Thursday Box Office Matches Infamous MCU Flop

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Following strong showings from Wicked: For Good and Zootopia 2, which boosted ticket sales after a slow October, the holiday season gets another big movie release. This weekend marks the debut of James Cameron’s Avatar: Fire and Ash, the third film in the incredibly popular Avatar series. The first two Avatar movies both earned over $2 billion worldwide, leading many to predict Fire and Ash will be a top-grossing film this year. However, this release is also a bit of a test for the franchise, as audiences will see if Fire and Ash can succeed so soon after Avatar: The Way of Water was released just three years ago.

According to Variety, Avatar: Fire and Ash brought in $12 million in the U.S. from showings on Thursday, December 18th. This is the same amount that Marvel’s Captain America: Brave New World earned from its early screenings earlier this year. However, Fire and Ash’s initial numbers are lower than those of Avatar: The Way of Water, which made $17 million from preview showings.

What Avatar: Fire and Ash‘s Thursday Box Office Means for Its Opening Weekend

Early predictions suggested Fire and Ash would earn $90 to $105 million domestically its first weekend, less than the opening weekend of The Way of Water. While Thursday’s numbers might cause some concern about reaching those estimates, this movie series hasn’t typically performed strongly during preview screenings. Although The Way of Water earned $17 million in previews – less than films like Wicked: For Good ($30.8 million) and Superman ($22.5 million) – it ultimately grossed $134.1 million domestically its first weekend. This was more than Superman ($125 million) and The Fantastic Four: First Steps ($117.6 million) earned in their opening weekends.

Don’t put too much stock in Thursday preview screening numbers when trying to predict a movie’s opening weekend success. For example, Predator: Badlands earned $4.8 million in previews but went on to become the biggest film in that franchise. So, even if Avatar: Fire and Ash isn’t performing as well in previews, it doesn’t necessarily mean the movie will fail. This Avatar series has always relied on strong, sustained performance over several weeks in theaters, rather than huge opening weekends. That’s how Fire and Ash is expected to reach $2 billion.

While the film earned $12 million on Thursday, it’s not a number that’s either alarming or particularly strong. The Avatar movies are famously costly to make, and Fire and Ash is no different, with a production budget exceeding $400 million. This means the film needs to earn a significant amount of money just to cover its costs. The Thursday opening, combined with early weekend predictions, suggests that audiences might be starting to lose interest in the series. Because of this, director James Cameron is carefully watching how Fire and Ash performs at the box office before deciding whether to move forward with Avatar 4 and Avatar 5.

It’ll be interesting to see how Fire and Ash performs throughout the rest of the weekend. While reviews are generally good, its score on Rotten Tomatoes is the lowest in the series, ending director Cameron’s streak of “Certified Fresh” films that began with The Terminator. How people talk about a movie definitely impacts whether others will see it in theaters. The Avatar films are made for the big screen, so watching them at home just isn’t the same. However, some potential moviegoers might be hesitant about Fire and Ash‘s long runtime – three hours and fifteen minutes – and mixed reviews could keep them from going.

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2025-12-19 20:10