As a seasoned analyst with extensive experience in the crypto market, I believe Bitcoin (BTC) is currently facing significant resistance that is hindering its price rebound above $60,000. The cryptocurrency has managed to recover by 6.2% from this week’s lows but has yet to break through the crucial trendlines that are guarding the key resistance level.
Bitcoin (BTC) faces major resistance, which is keeping the BTC price rebound below $60,000.
During its recovery of approximately 6.2% from this week’s lowest points, Bitcoin’s price against the US Dollar has yet to surpass crucial trendlines according to information from CryptoMoon Markets Pro and TradingView.
Moving average threatens BTC price “ordeal”
Bitcoin experienced a decline of approximately 23% from its peak prices in April and persisted into May. The likelihood of another price surge leading to new record highs for Bitcoin appears to be minimal at the moment.
According to a report from CryptoMoon, the anticipated trading range for Bitcoin against the US Dollar, as expressed by Arthur Hayes – a former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX – is likely to remain between $70,000 and below throughout August.
As a researcher, I need to recover $60,000 initially, but the current trends appear to be stronger than the bullish forces, making it a challenge for me to regain that amount at this time.
On the radar is Bitcoin’s 100-day moving average (MA), currently at $59,930 as of May 3.
Since October 2023, this trendline has served as a crucial underpinning for Bitcoin’s market value, preventing significant declines during the initial phase of the bull market in the first half of 2023.
Now, however, the price is printing full daily candles below it.
According to Material Indicators’ analysis, the bulls have encountered robust technical resistance at the 100-day moving average.
A chart that accompanied the material indicators analysis displayed one of their exclusive trading signals, signifying a potential buy opportunity, on the daily timeframe.
“For Bitcoin supporters, regaining control of the 100-day moving average is a significant accomplishment which might trigger a short squeeze,” Keith Alan stated in a recent update on X.
“A rejection would be an ordeal.”
Bitcoin short-term holders underwater
One method to rephrase this sentence in a more natural and clear way is: “The short-term holder realized price (STH-RP) serves as another significant resistance level for Bitcoin’s price recovery, marking a traditional support line in bull markets.”
The term refers to the total cost incurred by Bitcoin investors holding their coins for a shorter period, specifically those with wallets containing BTC for 155 days or fewer.
As a seasoned crypto investor, I’ve noticed that when the price of my digital assets reaches the significant support level of STH-RP (let’s assume this is around $10,000 for Bitcoin), it tends to hold firm. This pattern has recurred frequently throughout the bull market since early 2023. Thus, every time we witness a return to STH-RP, I view it as a solid foundation that can help prevent further downward price movements.
On May 1, the most recent data from the on-chain resource Look Into Bitcoin showed that the value of STH-RP was at approximately $59,684.
The metric thus forms another key trendline concentrated within close proximity to $60,000.
In a recent analysis, Caleb Franzen, the CEO of Cubic Analysts, chose to highlight STH-RP as one of the key resistance levels he believes the market needs to surmount.
“He set his own threshold for taking on increased risk at a daily closing price above $61,000. There’s still much to accomplish, he noted.”
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2024-05-03 10:58