- Bitcoin faces key resistance at the $63.9k level.
- Profit-taking activity is natural during price appreciation and does not necessarily mark cycle tops.
As a seasoned crypto investor with a decade-long journey through the digital asset landscape, I can confidently say that Bitcoin’s recent price fluctuations are not uncommon or cause for immediate concern. The $63.9k resistance level is indeed significant, but it’s important to remember that profit-taking activity during price appreciation does not necessarily signal the end of a bull run.
Since April, Bitcoin’s [BTC] value has been steadily decreasing when viewed on longer-term price graphs like the weekly chart.
Over the course of each day, there were periods of increased market fluctuations. For example, in July, we saw a significant price rise of approximately 22%, going from $56,000 to $68,000. More recently, within just the last fortnight, there was a notable increase of about 17.5%, moving from $55,000 to $64,000.
Is the Bitcoin bull run over?
According to crypto expert Axel Adler’s recent post on platform X, it appears that the shift toward a bull market isn’t too distant. For this transition to occur, the 200-day moving average currently at $63.9k must be surpassed and changed into a support level instead.
Multiple market players believed that the Bitcoin price surge to $73,700 in March signaled the conclusion of the bull market, and they questioned whether the upcoming Bitcoin halving would trigger another rally given the altered cycle patterns.
The graph you see indicates that between October 2023 and June 2024, there was a rising trend in Bitcoin prices, but is this the actual prolonged surge we call a ‘bull run’? To give you an idea, during the previous cycle, from the crypto market crash due to Covid-19 to the 2020 halving in May, Bitcoin experienced a remarkable increase of approximately 157% over a span of just ten weeks.
It’s not unusual for a significant price surge leading up to the halving event, given the current situation where the bullish phase has been prolonged due to the Bitcoin spot ETF approval. However, each cycle is unique in its own way.
Holders’ behavior showed a market top was likely not yet in
According to another graph created by the same expert, it’s common for periods of price growth to be followed by investors realizing their profits. However, this doesn’t necessarily indicate that the bullish trend has ended.
Furthermore, the ratio of long-term vs short-term investors’ realized profits (LTH/STH SOPR) remained below 7, similar to the pattern observed at market peaks during the last two cycles.
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2024-25
Prior to the last bull market, there was a significant increase in cryptocurrency prices during 2019. This surge was used to cash out, causing the Spend Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) to drop from 2.6 to 1.1. In a similar way, the selling pressure over the past five months has caused the SOPR to decrease from 4.2 to 1.5.
In summary, the data continued to suggest a potential increase in Bitcoin’s price over the next few months.
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2024-09-23 08:07