As a seasoned researcher with a keen interest in the intersection of technology and politics, I find the surge in prediction markets, particularly in relation to the 2024 US elections, absolutely fascinating. The growth we’ve seen this quarter is unprecedented, with Polymarket leading the pack by a landslide.
In Q3 of 2024, prediction markets experienced a notable surge due to wagers placed on the approaching U.S. presidential election, whose outcome might shape future cryptocurrency laws drastically.
Betting activity in prediction markets significantly increased by approximately 565.4% during Q3, culminating in a total volume of around $3.1 billion spread across the top three markets. This figure represents a substantial rise from the initial $463.3 million recorded in Q2 2024.
The increase in the size of predictions made in prediction markets was largely due to a rise in wagers placed on the results of the U.S. elections, as suggested by a report published by CoinGecko on October 14.
“Prediction markets picked up steam in 2024 Q3, growing 565.4% due to pundits betting on the upcoming US elections.”
According to billionaire Elon Musk, it’s possible that prediction markets without a central authority may offer more precise predictions about the outcome of the 2024 U.S. election when compared to conventional surveys.
Using platforms such as Polymarket, individuals can place bets using secure digital currencies like US Dollar Coins (USDC), wagering on the result of a particular event.
Polymarket accounts for 99% of market share
By September 2024, Polymarket, a leading decentralized platform, had solidified its position in the market by holding more than 99% of the total market share.
Approximately 46% of Polymarket’s total trading activity this year can be attributed to wagers on the U.S. presidential elections, as per a recent report by CoinGecko. The report further noted:
“Some $1.7 billion of bets have been placed on the “US Presidential Election Winner” since the start of 2024, accounting for ~46% of Polymarket’s yearly volume.”
In the third quarter of 2024, the amount wagered on Polymarket surged an impressive 713%, and the number of transactions soared by a massive 848%.
As of its release, Polymarket’s platform boasts a combined value of more than 172 million dollars, as reported by DefiLlama.
Former President Trump leads Harris on Polymarket
Presently, according to the data from Polymarket, Donald Trump, a previous president, enjoys an eight-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris.
Based on information from Polymarket, it appears that there’s a 53.8% probability that ex-President Trump might emerge victorious in the upcoming election. Conversely, just 45.3% of Polymarket users have wagered on Vice President Harris for the same contest.
On October 4th, the situation turned in Donald Trump’s advantage, signifying a significant shift from September’s trends. By October 12th, according to CryptoMoon, Trump had built up more than a 10-point lead.
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2024-10-14 13:35