As a seasoned researcher with over two decades of experience in financial markets, I have seen my fair share of correlations and causations that may seem unusual at first glance. However, the apparent link between Bitcoin’s price surge and former President Donald Trump’s election odds is an intriguing development that warrants further investigation.
The cost of a single Bitcoin has risen to a level not seen for more than two and a half months, possibly due to an increasing link between its value and the likelihood of former U.S. President Donald Trump winning another election.
Over the last seven days, the value of a single Bitcoin (BTC) increased by almost 10%, reaching an unprecedented high of $68,200 as per CryptoMoon’s latest figures, which marks the highest it has been since the end of July.
The rally took place not long after Donald Trump’s advantage against Vice President Kamala Harris reached an all-time peak on a prominent decentralized forecasting platform.
On October 16th at 11:41 am UTC, the likelihood that Trump would win the U.S. presidential election was approximately 60.2%, whereas Harris’ chances had dropped to around 39.8% based on information gathered from Polymarket.
Trump is often viewed as a more supportive figure for the cryptocurrency sector due to his perceived openness towards innovation, whereas certain investors worry that a possible presidency by Harris might limit blockchain progress by implementing stricter regulatory measures.
Peter Schiff calls Bitcoin “Trump pump”
Economist Peter Schiff has referred to the recent surge in Bitcoin’s price as an unsubstantial rise, fueled primarily by President Trump’s influence.
Schiff wrote in an Oct. 16 X post:
“While everyone is focused on the meaningless, Trump-inspired #Bitcoin pump, they’re missing the significance of #gold hitting another record high, above $2,680. Bitcoin may be up more, but it’s remained range-bound for seven months, as gold sets one record high after another.”
On October 4th, the chances at Polymarket switched to benefit Donald Trump, indicating a significant turnaround from the preceding month. By October 12th, Trump had taken a lead of more than 10 points, according to CryptoMoon’s report.
As a researcher examining Bitcoin’s price trends, I noticed an intriguing pattern: The cryptocurrency found a base above $60,300 on October 10, following the resurgence of Trump’s lead in the days prior. Remarkably, since hitting its monthly bottom on that same day, the price has surged by over 13%.
Is Bitcoin sentiment correlated with Trump’s election odds?
Other analysts, like Thomas Fahrer, CEO of the cryptocurrency-centric review site Apollo, also seem to notice a possible link between Trump’s chances of winning and the value of Bitcoin.
He wrote in an Oct. 16 X post:
“For every 1% rise in Trump’s probability of winning, Bitcoin price rises by $1K. “
The likelihood of Donald Trump winning the 2024 U.S. presidency appears closely connected to the feelings of those who invest in cryptocurrencies.
On October 12th, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index shifted from “fear” to “neutral”, coinciding with Trump’s increased lead on Polymarket by 10 points. Since then, the index has climbed up to 73, indicating a surge in investor enthusiasm or “greed”.
The index is a multifactorial measure of crypto market sentiment.
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2024-10-16 16:04