As a seasoned researcher with over two decades of experience in the financial markets, I’ve seen my fair share of economic data releases and their impact on various asset classes. Today’s US jobless claims data has certainly added another layer of complexity to the current state of Bitcoin (BTC).
As an analyst, I observed a downtrend in Bitcoin (BTC) leading up to the October 17th Wall Street opening, with this movement likely influenced by a surge in U.S. jobless claims. This development seems to have instilled a sense of caution among investors, potentially prompting them to reconsider any anticipated interest rate cuts.
Bitcoin centers on $67,000 after US jobs data
Data from CryptoMoon Markets Pro and TradingView tracked a cool day for BTC price action after a spike to 11-week highs of $68,400.
Hovering around $67,000 at the time of writing, BTC/USD weathered mixed US unemployment data.
The number of initial unemployment claims was lower than anticipated, which was around 258,000, whereas the continuing claims were somewhat higher than projected.
Consequently, there was less faith among markets regarding the size of interest rate decreases that the Federal Reserve might implement over the next few months.
According to the most recent data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, it appears that the probability of a 0.25% decrease in interest rates by the Federal Reserve during their November meeting is very high (around 75%).
Elsewhere, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered its anticipated 0.25% cut on the day.
Without any significant economic events ongoing, the focus within the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency community is primarily on the upcoming U.S. Presidential Election, which coincides with the Federal Reserve meeting in the same week.
In their recent update shared with subscribers of their Telegram channel, trading firm QCP Capital pointed out that the upcoming U.S. election is a significant event that could influence Bitcoin (BTC) and cryptocurrency markets. However, they added that there’s still much uncertainty about where BTC might head following the election.
“Options expiring near the election are trading at a 10% premium compared to other expiries. With everyone’s focus on the election, any change in the polls or either candidate’s campaign narrative will be amplified in spot prices.”
Excitement and trepidation as BTC price highs near
While examining the brief Bitcoin (BTC) price fluctuations, there was a diversity of views about whether the bullish trend could maintain its current pace.
According to a well-known account, TheKingfisher, the recent phenomenon known as a short squeeze has largely concluded.
“On the bullish side, there’s only one significant ‘toxic’ level left for 2024 at 71.3k, giving a trade range of 60.2k to 71.3k. There’s potential for another push towards 73k, but that could lead to another correction towards 60k and deleverage the market again.”
According to data observed on CoinGlass, bid demand was strengthening near $68,000 and concentrating around $68,500 – a level slightly above the previous day’s peak, following a drop in Bitcoin price that absorbed liquidity.
Plenty of voices nonetheless favored a sprint beyond the old 2021 all-time high of $69,000.
As a researcher analyzing economic data, I personally find it crucial to pay attention to the moving averages (MA’s) in the market. In my recent post, I emphasized that even though initial reactions may vary, Bulls, like myself, are keen on ensuring prices maintain themselves above these critical moving averages.
“IMO, consolidating above the 2021 Mid-Cycle Top before going after $70k would be healthier than a straight rip, but the market doesn’t care what I think.”
A graph was provided that demonstrated the moving average trend lines, along with buy and sell indications using one of Material Indicator’s exclusive trading systems.
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2024-10-17 16:23