As an analyst with over two decades of experience in global financial markets, I find Arthur Hayes’ perspective on Bitcoin’s potential surge during escalating tensions in the Middle East particularly intriguing. His background in trading and understanding of commodities provides a unique perspective that could prove valuable to our analysis.
If conflict in the Middle East intensifies and oil and energy costs increase, as predicted by Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX crypto exchange, it’s anticipated that Bitcoin prices will skyrocket.
In a blog post dated October 16th, Hayes predicted that oil prices would significantly increase if Iran were to launch attacks on significant oil and natural gas fields during an intensified conflict with Israel. He further explained that this escalation would cause all other energy prices to rise as well, since countries facing oil shortages would resort to using alternative energy sources to fuel their economies.
“What happens to the fiat price of Bitcoin? It pumps,” he said.
“Bitcoin is stored energy in digital form. Therefore, if energy prices rise, Bitcoin will be worth more in terms of fiat currency.”
Hayes explained that the mining profitability of Bitcoin could be influenced by alterations in difficulty levels. Notably, if the hashrate decreases, so will the mining difficulty. This, in turn, would make it more feasible for new miners to earn profits even with higher energy costs due to the reduced complexity involved in mining Bitcoin.
During the oil crises between 1973 and 1982, which were a result of the Arab oil embargo and the Iranian revolution, Hayes presented an instance where there were substantial increases in commodity prices. The price of oil skyrocketed by approximately 412%, while gold experienced a similar surge, increasing by around 380%. This increase in gold’s value nearly mirrored that of oil.
During significant oil crises, Bitcoin (BTC) wasn’t around; however, it exhibited a similar trend with commodities when prices were on the rise due to inflation.
Should Middle Eastern oil be removed from the market “the Bitcoin blockchain will continue to function, and the price will, at minimum, hold its value vs. energy and definitely rise in fiat currency terms,” he said.
This week, the price of oil has decreased noticeably. The West Texas Intermediary (WTI) dropped approximately 3.7% from its value on Monday, reaching $71.09 per barrel on October 17, as reported by Oilprice.com.
During the past week, Bitcoin experienced a growth exceeding 8%, reaching an unprecedented high of $68,000 in the initial trades on October 18th since late July.
This week, the price of gold has soared to a record peak at $2,711 per ounce on October 17th, as reported by GoldPrice.org.
The gain comes as investors turned to safe-haven assets amid uncertainty about the upcoming US election and mounting tensions in the Middle East.
1) Israel has threatened to retaliate against Iran, following an attack in early October. In response to Israeli air raids targeting Iranian-aligned militants in Lebanon, Iran fired approximately 180 missiles.
In times of doubt or instability, it’s commonly advised to consider investing in gold, as stated by Nitesh Shah, a commodity expert at WisdomTree, to Reuters on October 17th.
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2024-10-18 07:41