As a researcher with a background in finance and economics, I have always been intrigued by the intersection of technology, politics, and betting markets. The recent news about Polymarket, a crypto predictions platform, checking to ensure that large bets on the US presidential election are placed by overseas users, rather than Americans, has caught my attention.
According to reports, Polymarket, a platform that makes predictions about cryptocurrency, is verifying whether large investors (whales) who are making significant wagers on the U.S. presidential election are situated outside of the United States, since such activity is prohibited for American users on the platform.
According to a report from Bloomberg on October 22, Polymarket is currently reviewing the information of its users who place significant bets, in order to verify that they are adhering to the platform’s rules. (This sentence is paraphrased to make it more natural and easy to read.)
Although Polymarket implements measures to prevent American users from accessing its site, there are worries that some US citizens might be using Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) to bypass these restrictions. This situation has led Polymarket to take additional precautions and perform more thorough checks.
Some people are discussing the possibility that a few influential whale votes could be swaying the probabilities towards the Republican nominee, Donald Trump, in the upcoming U.S. presidential election in November.
Approximately 2.3 billion dollars worth of wagers have accumulated in the “Who Will Win the U.S. Presidential Election in 2024?” market on Polymarket, with Trump being the preferred candidate at approximately 63.7%, compared to Vice President Kamala Harris who has about a 36.2% chance of winning.
There’s a lot of interest in the location of the big investor known as “Fredi9999” on Polymarket, due to over $20 million being bet on Republican victories by this individual thus far.
Trump also leads Harris on competitor prediction platform Kalshi at 60%.
Contrarily, while Trump is favored in cryptocurrency predictions, this preference doesn’t seem to be mirrored in mainstream voter polls. For instance, a Reuters poll places Kamala Harris ahead at 46%, followed closely by Trump with 43%.
To counter the examination from Polymarket’s media, Kalshi’s creator, Tarek Mansour, asserted that the outcomes produced by Polymarket are authentic and not a result of artificial manipulation.
On Harris, the average wager tends to be higher than it is on Trump. Specifically, the typical bet for Harris amounts to $85, while a common bet for Trump is $58.
Billionaire and Polymarket investor Mark Cuban thinks most of the bets placed on Polymarket’s US election market are coming from overseas — and as a result, it isn’t a true reflection of eligible voter sentiment.
In a recent interview with CNBC Squawk Box on October 21st, Cuban stated that based on the evidence available, a large portion of the funds flowing into Polymarket appears to be from foreign sources. However, he added that this doesn’t necessarily imply anything significant.
In January 2022, Polymarket agreed to a $1.4 million settlement with the U.S. commodities regulator due to offering over 900 event-based binary options without proper registration. Separately, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission faced a setback in a lawsuit against Kalshi filed in September, as the court ruled that the regulator had exceeded its authority by mandating the U.S.-based company to halt its election markets.
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2024-10-23 08:57