Polymarket claims to have identified Trump whale

As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of experience in finance and trading, I find myself intrigued by this recent revelation about the alleged whale trader on Polymarket. The New York Times DealBook report sheds light on an interesting case, one that underscores the power of informed sentiment in the financial markets.


As a crypto investor, I recently came across some intriguing news about a significant player in the market – a French financier with a proven track record in trading. According to representatives from Polymarket, this individual is suspected of being behind $28 million worth of pro-Trump positions in the crypto market. The mystery remains unsolved as his identity remains undisclosed for now.

As reported by The New York Times DealBook, these four accounts – Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie – are said to be owned by the same trader, according to company representatives.

The company representatives additionally stated that they uncovered no signs of market manipulation throughout their probe. They pointed out that the trader strategically distributed his wagers over multiple smaller positions in order to prevent sudden and abnormal market movements.

Polymarket additionally reached out to an individual who asserted that the market positions were influenced by their personal feelings about the 2024 U.S. Presidential election outcome. However, Polymarket insists that the odds on its platform align with those found on rival platforms.

Polymarket claims to have identified Trump whale

Other prediction markets reveal similar results

Come October, the betting odds on Polymarket for the presidential election started leaning significantly towards the former President Trump, raising concerns about market manipulation. This led Polymarket to launch an investigation in order to uncover any American users suspected of being involved on their platform.

In contrast to recent claims, Tarek Mansour, founder of Kalshi, contends that the odds on Polymarket accurately represent the genuine market sentiment. Mansour supports this view by providing data from Kalshi, an American-exclusive platform, which aligns with the Polymarket’s election odds suggesting Trump holds a strong advantage over Harris.

Polymarket claims to have identified Trump whale

As a crypto investor, I noticed an intriguing surge in the odds for the former president on Polymarket towards the beginning of October, after several months of relatively narrow betting spreads between the two candidates. In fact, as far back as early August, Vice President Harris had held a substantial lead over Trump, with her advantage peaking at around 10%.

As the end of August and start of September approached, the early advantage started to dwindle, causing both contenders to be closely matched throughout most of the campaign.

Critics of Polymarket and similar platforms contend that these services aren’t as reliable as traditional polls, with traders often making speculative wagers without substantial evidence. On the other hand, proponents of these prediction markets believe they offer a public benefit and are more accurate gauges of public opinion about elections compared to surveys, because of financial incentives.

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2024-10-24 20:05