As a seasoned financial analyst with over two decades of experience under my belt, I must say that the predictions surrounding Bitcoin (BTC) and the upcoming U.S elections have certainly piqued my interest. The insights from Standard Chartered Bank’s Geoff Kendrick, along with other commentators in the crypto space, offer a unique perspective on how political outcomes could potentially impact BTC prices.
If the Republican Party gains control over the U.S. Congress following the November 5th elections, according to predictions made by Geoff Kendrick, a financial analyst at Standard Chartered Bank, the value of Bitcoin could potentially reach $125,000 by year-end.
In the whirlwind of conjecture surrounding the upcoming U.S. elections and Bitcoin (BTC) market trends, I find myself leaning optimistically towards Republican party success.
The Trump bump is looking powerful
According to Kendrick’s prediction, Bitcoin (BTC) could potentially reach approximately $73,000 by November 5, which happens to be the day of the elections. If Donald Trump, the former Republican president, is re-elected, Kendrick anticipates that BTC might increase by around 4% immediately after the election results are announced, according to his analysis of options data. Within a few days following the announcement, he believes Bitcoin could experience an additional 10% growth. In summary, this is what Kendrick stated in his note: [Bitcoin’s potential price movement based on the outcome of the elections and Donald Trump’s possible re-election].
“Our base case is that Bitcoin rises to around USD 73,000 by Election Day, catching up to betting-market probabilities of a Trump win; this is slightly below the c.USD 73,800 all-time high recorded in March.”
If Vice President Kamala Harris were to become President, Kendrick predicts that Bitcoin will drop temporarily but finish the year around $75,000. He points out that, according to RealClearPolitics, there’s a 59% likelihood of a Trump win, and Polymarket estimates a 75% chance for Trump’s victory in the upcoming election.
Crypto skews right
A significant player, who has been recognized but remains unnamed, wagered over $20 million through Polymarket, influencing the odds in favor of a Trump victory.
The crypto community perceives Trump to be more favorable to it than Harris, although Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen is a notable exception, having donated XRP (XRP) worth $11 million to Harris’s campaign.
It’s not just Kendrick who expresses strong faith in Trump; an executive from crypto asset manager Bitwise foresees Bitcoin reaching $92,000 if Trump wins, while crypto exchange Deribit anticipates Bitcoin to touch $80,000 by the end of November under a Trump presidency.
Calmer analysts, including BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, predict that Bitcoin’s value could increase irrespective of the election outcomes.
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2024-10-25 00:19