As a seasoned crypto investor with over a decade of experience in this dynamic market, I’ve seen my fair share of bull and bear cycles. The recent performance of Ether (ETH) against Bitcoin (BTC) is causing me some concern, especially given its lowest level since April 2021. It seems that underwhelming exchange-traded fund launches, increasing competition with smart contracts rival Solana (SOL), and other factors have dampened traders’ appetite for Ethereum in 2024.
In simple terms, the value of Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), is weakening compared to Bitcoin (BTC). As of October 25, the ETH/BTC exchange rate is approximately 0.0365 Bitcoins, which is its lowest point since April 2021.
2024 saw a decrease in investor interest for Ethereum, due to the lackluster debuts of exchange-traded funds and intensifying competition from the smart contract platform Solana (SOL), which has diminished traders’ desire for Ethereum.
In the upcoming months, it’s possible that these elements could keep pushing ETH/BTC downwards, as technical signals also suggest a similar trend.
ETH price may see another 15% drop
The continuous decrease in Ether’s value seems to represent the collapse phase of its current inverse-cup-and-handle (IC&H) chart pattern.
Initially, we saw a gradual increase that reached a high point, shaping something like a flipped U (similar to a cup). Following this upside-down U shape, there was a brief and slight recovery (like the handle of a cup), creating a period of consolidation where the trend either moved slightly upward or remained stable.
A common IC&H (Inverted Cup and Handle) pattern usually concludes when the price drops beneath the neckline’s supportive level, moving downward by an amount equivalent to the greatest distance from the cup’s highest point to its neckline.
By October 25th, the Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio (ETH/BTC) had reached a similar downward phase, potentially aiming for a bottom near approximately 0.0319 Bitcoins. This represents a decline of more than 15% compared to its current market value.
Ethereum bulls pin hopes on 25-50% rebound
There’s a possibility that Ethereum could begin a new period of price increase relative to Bitcoin following its drop to a level matching the IC&H pattern target. This alignment mirrors the bearish prediction made by Aksel Kibar, a certified market technician and ex-fund manager.
Kibar predicts that the value of Ethereum relative to Bitcoin (ETH/BTC pair) could decrease towards approximately 0.0290 Bitcoins. He refers to this point as a significant “turning point,” noting that in 2021, it served as support after a 200% increase in value.
The likelihood of ETH/BTC recovering from its current range between 0.0290 and 0.0319 BTC could potentially grow, given that the pair’s monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached a record low on October 25.
Approximately at age 33, ETH/BTC’s monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) is merely two points above its oversold limit of 30. This might mean a possible drop in the upcoming months as the monthly RSI reaches “oversold” status for the very first time, hinting that the market could experience an excessive downward extension.
A decrease in RSI (Relative Strength Index) to oversold territory could signal seller fatigue, potentially setting up conditions for an optimistic turnaround. This is because when RSI reaches what’s known as “oversold” levels, it often indicates attractive buying opportunities since the asset might be underestimated and poised for a rebound.
If there’s a change in trend towards bullishness for ETH/BTC, it might aim at reaching its 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level approximately at 0.0482 BTC. Furthermore, the 50-month Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is represented by the red wave and is positioned close to 0.0549 BTC, could serve as another significant potential high point.
In other words, ETH/BTC can recover by 25-50% in 2025 when measured from its current price levels.
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2024-10-25 15:55