China’s growing debt a great Bitcoin ‘buying opportunity’ — Arthur Hayes

As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of experience in the global financial markets, I’ve witnessed numerous economic cycles and their impact on various assets. The recent news about China considering a new wave of debt worth $1.4 trillion has piqued my interest, not only because it could potentially spur growth but also because of its potential implications for Bitcoin.


The strength of Bitcoin as a safeguard against the devaluation of money might become even more apparent due to China’s increasing national debt.

It has been reported by anonymous sources to Reuters that China might approve a new round of debt worth more than 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion USD) as part of a financial plan. This plan could potentially expand if Donald Trump, the Republican Party’s presidential candidate, is reelected.

Should it be authorized, the government aims to amass a 1.4 trillion yuan debt over the next three years. This money will then be utilized to mitigate potential debt issues faced by local governments.

The possibility of rising debt might spark more interest among mainland Chinese traders regarding Bitcoin’s role as a safeguard against currency devaluation, as suggested by Arthur Hayes, one of the founders of BitMEX.

In a blog post dated October 28, Hayes suggested that the prospective increase in debt might offer a “superb chance for purchasing,” implying a beneficial moment to invest or buy.

“The fact economists are bearish on the size and scale of the stimulus so far presents a great buying opportunity. Because when the average wealthy coastal living Zhou decides they must have Bitcoin at any yuan price, the upside price volatility will harken back to August 2015.” 

China’s growing debt a great Bitcoin ‘buying opportunity’ — Arthur Hayes

Just a short while ago, Hayes made his prediction, following the milestone of Bitcoin reaching $70,000 for the first time since June 10. This surge was fueled by increasing excitement surrounding the upcoming U.S. presidential elections scheduled for November 5th.

Bitcoin price saw a 5x last time China raised debt

The forecasts made by Hayes take into account Bitcoin’s past behavior following instances of significant increases in national debt and currency depreciation.

In 2015, the price of Bitcoin experienced a more than five-time increase. This significant surge coincided with the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) conducting three sequential devaluations of the Chinese yuan, causing it to lose approximately 3% of its value. According to Hayes, this was one of the factors contributing to Bitcoin’s price rise.

“[In August 2015] when, after a shock yuan devaluation by the PBOC, Bitcoin went from $135 to $600 — an almost 5x pump in under 3 months.”

China’s growing debt a great Bitcoin ‘buying opportunity’ — Arthur Hayes

Prominent financiers, such as Michael Saylor from MicroStrategy, often refer to Bitcoin as an exceptional safeguard against inflation and potential decline in the value of traditional currencies.

Asian buyers are driving Bitcoin’s breakout toward new highs: Nansen

The Bitcoin price is setting up for a breakout to a new all-time high on the five-minute chart.

China’s growing debt a great Bitcoin ‘buying opportunity’ — Arthur Hayes

It’s Aurelie Barthere, the main researcher at Nansen, who points out that Asian purchasers have played a crucial role in propelling this upward trend in prices.

Barthere told CryptoMoon:

BTC broke higher to tackle the all-time highs at 1:30 a.m. CET, so it was clearly driven by Asian buyers. It is not possible to say whether the price break is related to the fiscal/ debt announcement from China, to pre-US-election excitement, or even just price reflexivity, with BTC showing a positive trend. It might be a combination of different factors.”

Analysts at Bitfinex anticipate that the price of Bitcoin could surge to around $80,000 by the year 2025, primarily due to the arrangement in the options market and the potential for a Republican candidate to win the presidency.

Winning the November 5th U.S. presidential election by Donald Trump is generally viewed as a positive sign for high-risk investments such as Bitcoin, as its value often aligns with the increasing likelihood of a Trump victory in the elections.

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2024-10-29 13:59