As a seasoned crypto investor with over a decade of experience navigating market volatility and regulatory uncertainty, I find myself cautiously optimistic about the upcoming 2024 US presidential election and its potential impact on the cryptocurrency industry.
As a keen observer and analyst, I find myself braced for the potentially groundbreaking influence of the 2024 U.S. presidential election on the dynamic world of cryptocurrencies.
Instead of fearing that a win for Vice President Kamala Harris might negatively affect the market, some people think her leadership could bring about beneficial changes for the industry.
Analysts at the private wealth management firm Bernstein predict that if Vice President Kamala Harris were to win in upcoming elections, her perceived anti-crypto stance might cause a significant decrease in Bitcoin’s value before the end of the year.
On the other hand, the anonymous cryptocurrency trader known as Crypto Rand is not convinced that a victory by Harris will signal the end of the ongoing bull market.
The trader told CryptoMoon that Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoin markets are due for a bull run in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, regardless of who ends up in the White House.
If Harris is elected, there might be a minor setback, but overall, the progress should persist, he foresightedly stated. He anticipates a temporary decrease of around 5% to 10% in Bitcoin’s price, considering it as a brief interruption rather than a shift in its underlying direction.
According to Chief Economist Youwei Yang from Bit Mining, it is advisable for cryptocurrency investors to pay attention to the level of money circulating globally in the economy.
As monetary policy grows less restrictive, there’s an increased probability that speculative funds, often referred to as ‘hot money’, will move towards high-risk investments such as cryptocurrencies, according to Yang’s statement to CryptoMoon. He anticipates that a victory by Harris could boost this liquidity.
Under a Harris administration, if the Federal Reserve adopts a more lenient approach, this could counteract regulatory hurdles and boost crypto prices. As a result, while there may be some variations, the overall outcome might not change significantly.
Under a Harris presidency, Yang predicts Bitcoin will hit $120,000; however, if President Donald Trump returns, he forecasts a slight increase to $135,000.
According to most onlookers, if Harris wins, it doesn’t automatically mean doom for the current cryptocurrency market surge; however, certain investors are concerned that it might present substantial hurdles for the American cryptocurrency sector.
Harris’s lack of clear crypto policy generates a “fear wave”
Tim Draper, a venture capitalist, shared with CryptoMoon his view that the upcoming elections are significant, emphasizing that the winner should refrain from implementing regulations in a sector that could potentially shape the world’s economy over the next 30 years. In simpler terms, he believes that whoever gets elected needs to be careful not to impose unnecessary restrictions on an industry that might determine global economic trends for the coming decades.
Bitcoin millionaire and crypto entrepreneur Erik Finman told CryptoMoon that the Biden administration’s executive order on digital assets was “terrible for crypto.” He worries Harris could continue Biden’s anti-crypto stance.
According to Draper, other nations are starting to foster innovation. He also mentioned that companies tend to relocate towards regions offering clearer regulations.
“Innovators are ‘geofencing’ the US until regulation is cleared up.”
During the early stages of her campaign, Harris did not explicitly discuss cryptocurrency. However, it wasn’t until September 22nd that she made a statement about her future administration promoting investments in artificial intelligence and digital assets to maintain American businesses at the forefront of competition.
Even though it appeared that Harris had benevolent motives, Basel Ismail, CEO of Blockcircle, suggested to CryptoMoon that she might have leveraged the situation more effectively by providing a comprehensive plan or roadmap.
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crypto Rand contends that Harris’ ambiguity sows seeds of doubt, and that such doubt can prove more harmful than outright opposition since businesses are left guessing about future developments, which can lead to gradual losses.
“An election win from Harris will enable a fear wave among the US crypto industry.”
Under the enforcement-focused regulatory strategy of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission during the Biden administration, some participants in the cryptocurrency sector are reconsidering if it’s advisable for them to continue operating within the United States.
According to Crypto Rand, four years in the traditional sense is equivalent to twenty years in the world of cryptocurrency. Therefore, if Harris wins the election, it could lead to a significant shift towards countries that are more welcoming to cryptocurrencies.
“Most crypto companies will exit the US and look for better alternatives like Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, El Salvador and maybe Argentina soon, too.”
Rashan Colbert, the policy chief at U.S.-based decentralized trading platform dYdX, shared with CryptoMoon his view that other countries are progressing quicker in the cryptocurrency field than the U.S., a situation he suggests the incoming administration should aim to reverse if they wish to keep the American crypto sector thriving and competitive.
2024 saw me checking out the Henley Crypto Adoption Index, a report compiled by Henley & Partners, which evaluates the level of cryptocurrency adoption across various nations. To my surprise, I found that the US trailed behind the UAE, Hong Kong, and Singapore in this regard.
Harris hasn’t confirmed a new SEC chair
According to Crypto Rand, there’s a widespread agreement among market analysts that current Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Gary Gensler has been particularly challenging for the cryptocurrency sector in the United States.
Colbert stated that a shift in leadership at the securities watchdog could mark the conclusion of an epoch characterized by excessive, damaging regulations enforced,” is one way to paraphrase it.
As a researcher, I’ve been examining the potential future of Gary Gensler as the Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). While Trump publicly declared he would dismiss Gensler on his first day in office, legally this was not feasible. Concerning Harris, she has yet to make an official statement about Gensler’s tenure at the SEC. However, individuals close to her team have subtly suggested that his position might not be as secure as some may believe.
According to billionaire investor Mark Cuban, Harris’ team opposes the SEC’s current tactic of “regulation by enforcement.” He told CryptoMoon:
“I think the obvious issue is Gensler, and my guess is that, based on the lack of public support for him, that he is gone.”
Cuban stated that Harris perceives clear-cut rules favorably and opposes the use of lawsuits for regulation. He suggests that her leadership may provide clarity on regulations to the extent that businesses would no longer feel compelled to relocate overseas in order to create applications.
As a crypto investor, I believe that a fresh perspective could provide valuable guidelines for our rapidly evolving industry. Draper took this a step further, advocating for an update to U.S. securities law. He argues that applying the 80-year-old Howey rule to regulate such a dynamic, growing environment is narrow-minded.
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Nevertheless, a majority of significant cryptocurrency businesses have yet to depart from the country. It seems that the lucrative nature of the U.S. market might be compelling enough to stay put, even with regulators’ somewhat unaccommodating stance during recent times.
According to the International Monetary Fund, the United States has the highest global GDP, amounting to approximately $29.17 trillion, with China coming in second at around $18.27 trillion.
At present, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is taking legal action against several large cryptocurrency companies for offering unregistered securities. The upcoming presidential election might not only result in a new president but could also bring about new leadership at the SEC, which could alter the commission’s stance towards the crypto industry.
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2024-10-31 15:52