As a seasoned crypto investor who has weathered multiple market cycles since the early days of Bitcoin, I can confidently say that the recent surge in Bitcoin’s price is not solely due to the election victory of Donald Trump in the United States. While his administration’s stance on cryptocurrencies has certainly provided a catalyst, the main story here is the post-halving supply shock.
The surprising win of Donald Trump in the U.S. elections isn’t generally considered the primary explanation for Bitcoin’s recent price increase; rather, a supply shortage following the halving event is more often cited as the significant factor by experts.
In a recent post on X, Jesse Myers, co-founder of Onramp Bitcoin, stated: “If you’re curious about the current state of #Bitcoin… Indeed, the pro-Bitcoin administration coming into power has sparked some activity… However, that’s not the primary focus of our discussion.
“The main story here is that we are 6+ months post-halving.”
As a researcher exploring the world of cryptocurrencies, I’ve observed that the Bitcoin halving event in April has significantly altered the mining landscape. Specifically, the block rewards have been reduced from 6.25 Bitcoins to 3.125 Bitcoins per block. This means that each subsequent block becomes more challenging to mine due to the decreased reward.
He noted that it implies an accumulation of a supply shortage, “The current market prices can’t attract enough supply to meet the demand,” and balance between supply and demand in terms of pricing needs to be reestablished.
“The only way to do that is for the price to go higher, which will flywheel into mania and a bubble, but that’s how this thing works.”
As a researcher examining market trends, I find it hard to believe that we could anticipate a consistent and dependable bubble every four years. However, it’s worth noting that I have yet to come across an asset on this planet whose production rate decreases by half every quadrennium.
He pointed out that a “post-halving surge” is likely to occur, noting that similar events took place following halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020. This trend seems to be repeating itself now, which could lead to significantly increased prices.
Analyst James Check from Onchain expressed a similar viewpoint, pointing out that while gold’s market value has increased by approximately $6 trillion in the last year, there is still a significant influx of “hundreds of billions of newly minted and reused gold supply entering the market.
The value of Bitcoin currently stands at approximately $1.6 trillion in market capitalization, and as it’s extremely limited with owners who have endured numerous hardships, it is anticipated to rise further, according to the prediction.
On November 12th, US financier Anthony Scaramucci suggested that Bitcoin still has potential for growth, telling those who haven’t invested yet, “Don’t feel like you’ve missed out; it’s still early.
He believed strongly that the United States would create a strategic Bitcoin reserve, a move that might prompt other nations to do the same, as well as institutional investors and financial managers.
Currently, approximately 94% of all existing Bitcoins have either been circulated or have been considered lost. This leaves roughly 1.2 million Bitcoin yet to be mined. This scarcity increases the tension between supply and demand.
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2024-11-12 06:40