As a seasoned cryptocurrency enthusiast with over a decade of experience in this dynamic market, I must say that the current state of the digital asset industry is nothing short of exhilarating. The recent surge in Bitcoin’s price to new all-time highs and the continued accumulation by whales and institutional investors through spot ETFs is a testament to the growing acceptance and confidence in this revolutionary technology.
As an analyst, I find myself ushering into a brand-new workweek with Bitcoin (BTC) standing just shy of record-breaking peaks following its most exceptional weekly closing yet.
- Bitcoin traders see price discovery returning in the coming week while eyeing levels toward $80,000 as a “buy the dip” opportunity.
- The weekly close set another record, but November 2024 remains nothing out of the ordinary for BTC price action.
- Markets are diverging over how the Federal Reserve will handle a brewing “stagflation” saga.
- Whales are still buying BTC, and ETF flows are elevated despite a knee-jerk reaction to last week’s $93,500 all-time high.
- Crypto sentiment gauges are getting increasingly overheated as levels of “extreme greed” reach classic blow-off top territory.
Traders prepare for BTC price volatility toward $100,000
In simpler terms, Bitcoin experienced a relatively small drop as it reached a new all-time high weekly closing price, causing those who had bet against it (short sellers) to suffer losses.
Starting the new trading week, Bitcoin’s price has surpassed $90,000 and continues to show strong momentum, having risen by approximately 30% so far this month. This increase is confirmed by data from CryptoMoon Markets Pro and TradingView.
According to a well-known trader, the regular weekly bidding process has been pushing prices up, as stated in one of his recent updates on platform X.
As a crypto investor, I found it intriguing when Skew pointed out that the price had managed to maintain its position above the 21-period exponential moving average (EMA) on a 4-hour basis. This week, my focus is set on two significant levels: $90,000 and $91,300, which I believe could play crucial roles as we move forward in our investment journey.
CrypNuevo suggested in a specialized X thread during the weekend that we might anticipate a significant surge, potentially reaching between $95,000 and $96,000, within the next week.
As a researcher, I propose a theory that experienced high-volume traders might aim to offload their positions onto novice traders as they approach the $100,000 mark. This potential action could lead to increased market volatility prior to this psychologically significant price level being breached.
The key point for liquidation has been surpassed, yet it could still be logical for the price to surge towards around $100,000 before falling back again, without actually hitting that level,” he explained.
“Why? Because many new traders will come to the market for first time FOMOing with longs and spot buys. Easy preys.”
To the downside, $87,000 needs to hold if the market shows signs of consolidation, he added.
Other traders are considering purchasing Bitcoin (BTC) at lower prices during a possible larger pullback, while trader Crypto Chase finds favorable entry points within the day by looking for gaps between the upper and lower wicks of daily candles.
He shared with his 30 X followers that they should anticipate a retreat into a Daily gap. In an uptrend, the initial gap is considered a good buying opportunity. Currently, he has around 30% of his long positions open from the 85K range. If he finds a good offer, he plans to buy more at high 83K levels.
“The lower gaps should remain unfilled until this market has reversed/turned bearish.”
BTC price weekly close smashes records
For Bitcoin bulls, there is no denying that last week was a historic triumph.
For the second week in a row, BTC/USD hit an all-time high weekly close, coming in just shy of $90,000, and it seems there’s no immediate need for a significant Bitcoin price correction to retest potential new support levels.
According to the data gathered from the tracking tool, CoinGlass, Bitcoin has seen a 11.8% increase in the past week. Moreover, its quarterly earnings have surpassed the 40% mark for Q4.
Monthly analysis shows that the Bitcoin price in November 2024 generally aligns with historical averages from the previous decade. Yet, traders anticipate this trend could shift.
Historically speaking, this sets the stage for approximately 300 days of potential growth, as CryptoAmsterdam noted on platform X, accompanied by a graph comparing Bitcoin’s past bull cycles.
Predictive analyses indicate a series of unprecedented weekly closing records for BTC/USD, as the market is currently trying to extend its upward momentum that peaked at an all-time high of $93,500 on November 13th.
According to trader and analyst Rekt Capital, Bitcoin’s Parabolic Phase is just getting started based on his extensive long-term price study of the cryptocurrency.
“Historically, this phase has lasted on average ~300 days. Bitcoin is only on Day 12 of its Parabolic Phase.”
Questions over Fed’s next rate cut
A relatively cool week for US macroeconomic data belies a brewing divergence over future financial policy.
Following the latest data indicating that inflation is speeding up in October, the Federal Reserve now grapples with the potential for “stagflation” – a challenging situation characterized by increasing prices alongside growing unemployment levels.
As a crypto investor, I’ve been closely watching the market trends and speculating on the potential moves by central bank officials. The chatter suggests a possible debate over whether they will adjust interest rates in December, with some indications pointing towards a 35% likelihood of a halt in rate cuts according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
As I look ahead towards 2025, it’s widely anticipated that interest rates will drop, making it a potentially favorable time for crypto investments, according to insights shared by The Kobeissi Letter over the weekend.
“Now, the Fed seems to be backtracking on the ‘Fed pivot.’ While more rate cuts are coming, inflation will remain elevated.”
As a crypto investor, I’m eagerly anticipating the upcoming week. It’s set to be particularly interesting as we’ll hear earnings from tech titan Nvidia, which could stir up volatility among risk assets on its own. To add to the intrigue, seven senior figures from the Federal Reserve are scheduled to make appearances.
On November 21st, we have the unemployment data, which was then followed a day after by the release of both the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and consumer sentiment reports.
Kobeissi noted that the Federal Reserve aims to prevent a scenario where there’s simultaneous increase in unemployment and inflation, similar to what occurred during the 1970s. This observation was made along with a graph showing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) against employment levels.
“Has the Fed failed yet again in avoiding stagflation?”
Whales keep stacking amid fraught ETF flows
This month, the story of significant Bitcoin hoarding by ‘Bitcoin Whales’ and institutional investors plays a crucial role in strengthening the argument for rising prices (bull case).
According to CryptoMoon’s latest report, the large investors (whales) continue to actively participate in the market as Bitcoin’s value surges beyond previous records and enters uncharted territory against the US dollar.
Whales – both big and small – are increasingly investing in Bitcoin (BTC), as indicated by the data from a cryptocurrency analytics platform called CryptoQuant.
When it comes to the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the trend is the same.
The quantity of Bitcoin held by spot ETFs has seen a substantial rise since their introduction in January, climbing from 629,900 BTC to 1,054,500 BTI, which equates to an expansion of approximately 425,000 BTC, as noted by CryptoQuant contributor MAC_D in a recent Quicktake post on November 18th.
“This corresponds to an increase from 3.15% to 5.33% of the total mined supply of 19.78M BTC, a 2.18% surge in just eight months.”
MAC_D proposed that the influence on the supply and demand balance might push prices upward.
The significant price rises seen in March and November seem to indicate a powerful relationship between stockpiling and price levels, as stated in the text.
“Therefore, as more Bitcoin is accumulated through spot ETFs, we can expect the price to continue its upward trend.”
The data gathered from sources like Farside Investors shows that the market for spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) has been unstable recently. There have been significant periods of net investments followed by noticeable net withdrawals over the past week.
Over the past two days up until November 15th, a total of over $750 million was withdrawn, with this figure following Bitcoin’s surge to record peak values.
Crypto “FOMO” brings price warning
Crypto social media is “very reliably” flagging the peak of each BTC price run, research now says.
Examining the frequency of certain words like “prices” on social media platforms, research company Santiment finds that excitement (or “hype”) about a potential future event reaches its peak concurrently with the price itself.
On November 13th, the remarkable rise of Bitcoin reached an unprecedented peak with a new record high price of $93,490.
“The hype across social media platforms is calling the tops very reliably, with the biggest signal came as $100K+ BTC price speculation poured in right at the ATH 4 hours ago.”
Santiment noted that the growing sense of “Fear of Missing Out” (FOMO) might serve as a “warning signal,” suggesting that the current market trend could potentially reverse.
Currently, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is indicating “high levels of greed,” similar to what was observed prior to Bitcoin’s previous significant high in March.
The Index hit 90/100 on Nov. 17, just five points off classic market turnaround territory.
Read More
- PSP PREDICTION. PSP cryptocurrency
- NYM PREDICTION. NYM cryptocurrency
- IP PREDICTION. IP cryptocurrency
- EUR IDR PREDICTION
- RLC PREDICTION. RLC cryptocurrency
- INJ PREDICTION. INJ cryptocurrency
- XRD PREDICTION. XRD cryptocurrency
- CTK PREDICTION. CTK cryptocurrency
- EUR INR PREDICTION
- COW PREDICTION. COW cryptocurrency
2024-11-18 11:08